Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
November 25, 2014

Oberweis’ Illinois Senate Bid Testing Theory That Persistence Pays Off

oberweis032114 445x291 Oberweis’ Illinois Senate Bid Testing Theory That Persistence Pays Off

(CQ Roll Call File Photo)

They don’t call him the Milk Dud for nothing, but right now, he is on a little roll.

Jim Oberweis made most of his fortune in the family business, a high-end dairy delivery service and chain of ice cream parlors in Illinois. And in the space of six years in the previous decade, he poured many gallons of his riches into five failed campaigns for high-profile positions — earning not only that enduring nickname, but also the enmity of Republican operatives and officeholders from Capitol Hill to Springfield, Ill.

Now Oberweis has launched his second act in American politics by winning two straight elections. He took an open state Senate seat in the GOP outer suburbs of Chicago in 2012, and last week he claimed the nomination to try and stop Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin from winning a fourth term.

But virtually no one expects Oberweis to extend his winning streak come November. At best, his allies concede, his caustic rhetorical approach and willingness to tap his own bank account could combine to make the fall campaign more expensive and uncomfortable for Durbin. (The Democrat, who counts President Barack Obama as his proudest mentoring achievement, remains favored in a year when the president’s sagging approval is the defining dynamic nationwide.)

And at worst, losing a sixth high-profile election could doom the 67-year-old Oberweis to live with the ridicule that comes with the label “perennial candidate,” no matter what he ends up accomplishing after returning to the state legislature.

Oberweis spent a combined $4 million losing GOP primaries for the Senate in 2002 and 2004. Then he put $2.2 million more into a runner-up bid for the 2006 gubernatorial nomination. And then he threw $3.8 million at twin quests for the House in 2008, but was unable to hold what looked like a reliably Republican district in either the special or general elections after former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert resigned.

21hawkingsprintgraphic 246x335 Oberweis’ Illinois Senate Bid Testing Theory That Persistence Pays OffTo be sure, getting to Congress after multiple unsuccessful forays has plenty of precedent. Thirteen current members won their first elections to the House on their third congressional try. Four more got to the Hill on their fourth attempt. And one veteran House member had to run five times to finally notch a victory: Democrat Collin C. Peterson, who last week announced his bid for a 13th term in a western Minnesota district that Mitt Romney carried two years ago. As a state senator, Peterson lost primaries in 1982 and 1988, and general elections in 1984 and 1986, that one by just 126 votes. He ultimately defeated a veteran GOP incumbent to gain his seat in 1990.

If he can defy all odds, Peterson’s is the record Oberweis would match this year. But few Republicans on either side of the party’s internal divide sound interested in taking the bet.

Not even a perfunctory word of praise for his primary victory was spoken by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. And tea party groups in Illinois bemoaned the loss of the other candidate, Doug Truax, a political neophyte and health care consultant who took 44 percent. (Among his endorsers were former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Illinois Rep. Aaron Schock, who both talked about the need for a fresh face to represent the moribund Illinois GOP.)

Partly, this is because Oberweis presents as a manifestly flawed candidate, even without the baggage that comes from being labeled an electoral retread. Two stories dominated coverage just before the primary: With a big snowstorm barreling across the Midwest, Oberweis spent much of the campaign’s closing week playing golf at his home on the Gulf Coast in southern Florida. And, after citing an increase in the rural highway speed limit from 65 mph to 70 mph as his main achievement as a legislator, the Chicago Tribune found he’d been ticketed for speeding 11 times since 1988.

Combine that bad press with the roster of incendiary comments that made headlines in his past campaigns — about such hot-button topics as abortion, gay marriage and illegal immigration — and it’s pretty clear Oberweis will need to spend millions of his own money trying to engineer a statewide image makeover in the coming months.

But he seems to have backed away from his lavish self-funding habits of the 2000s. Oberweis didn’t spend a dime of his riches (from the two investment banking firms he started, as well as the eponymous dairy enterprise) to become a state legislator, and he only loaned his current campaign $500,000 before the primary. (Still, that loan amounted to 70 percent of his campaign’s receipts.)

And beyond his perceived shortcomings as a campaigner, Oberweis’ down-the-line conservatism on both fiscal and social policy will add to his underdog status in Illinois, where successful GOP statewide candidates (Sen. Mark S. Kirk, most prominently) have positioned themselves near the center and where Obama, a former state senator himself, remains more popular than he is nationally.

Durbin, who won his first three Senate elections by an average of 25 points, is now 69 and may well be running his final campaign. He begins with $5.7 million in the bank and a reputation for paying remarkably dogged attention to home-state matters in light of the demands on his time as No. 2 in the Senate hierarchy.

All this has some Illinois Republicans worried that Oberweis, whose name will top the GOP ballot line on Nov. 4, could drag down the rest of the ticket. Most notably that’s the multimillionaire on whom the Republican Party has much more reason to stake its 2014 fortunes in the state: Bruce Rauner, who won the nomination for governor last week with a populist message about upending the status quo in the financially troubled Democratic state government with a more businesslike approach. Rauner spent $6 million of his private equity fortune to best three veteran politicians in the primary and will now oppose Gov. Pat Quinn’s bid for a third term.

The people controlling the party purse strings aren’t going to be pushing any of their largess toward Oberweis, given that they have many more viable ways to go after the six seats needed for a Senate majority — and given their many past frustrations with the candidate. “Never again,” was the crystal clear sentiment about Oberweis that national GOP kingmakers and plenty of pundits delivered after he squandered both his shots at the Hastert seat.

But that was six years ago, which is so many lifetimes in politics. And there is just so much the operatives can control when confronted with a robust mix of money, ego and determination.

 IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED …

The CQ Roll Call members’ database shows 18 in the 113th Congress mounted multiple unsuccessful campaigns before finally winning a seat. See the graphic online here.

 

  • True Observer

    1. 11 Tickets in 27 years. He ran statewide 3 times. Probably put on 50,000 miles each time.
    Rather interesting that the Trib dug up his and Truax’s traffic tickets but didn’t bother to report how many Durbin got.
    2. 2004 was year in which Obama and Oberweis ran for Senate. The Trib helped Obama by digging up the divorce records of his most serious Democratic primary opponent and kayoing him. Then they went to town on the Republican nominee and got the courts to open up his divorce records. After the Republican dropped out, the Republican party brought in Alan Keyes instead of letting Oberweis run.
    3. The Hastert special election. That election was held on a Saturday. First and only time in Illinois history for an election on Saturday. Republican working stiffs were out doing chores and the “entitlement crowd” had plenty of time to vote because they have the whole week.
    4. 70 MPH accomplished by a newly elected legislator the first year. Something that had been talked about for 40 years and no one could get done. Not a bad day’s work.
    5. Rostenkowski, a legend, was chased by senior citizens in his own ward because he messed with their Medicaid. The Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee lost to rookie lawyer who was in the process of filing bankruptcy.
    Obamacare waits for Durbin.
    6. Rauner is going to dump big bucks. People will be voting who never vote. Oberweis will benefit.
    7. The ace in the hole. Immigration. The Hispanics know that with Durbin it’s going to be the same old. Nothing will change. With Oberweis being universally attached to immigration issues, the Hispanics know that only he can bring about change. With his new position of Dream Act and legal status but no citizenship, Oberweis will make serious inroads.

    • http://marketsharescorp.com/ Nick10

      About Alan Keyes above. A great moment in Illinois U.S. Senate history! A very, very few IL GOP kingmakers settled on Keyes to run against Obama. For them it was genius, racism should work. Keyes settled in a motel to prove he was a citizen of Illinois.
      The election outcome: Obams 70%, Keyes 27%. Never heard anything about these kingmakers afterwards. Good riddance.

      • teapartyidiots

        Oberweis has no chance. Even money Rauner wins.

  • teapartyidiots

    I live in IL. He has absolutely ZERO chance. The governorship is at best 50/50 (and maybe 55/45) to flip now that Rauner is the nominee. Durbin has a 60% approval rating and Oberweis is FAR too conservative for a deep blue state.

  • Mark Uss

    Liberty would be a meaningless term if it were defined by the whims and ever-changing will of fleeting majorities and their elected agents.

  • Payton Manning

    Our emotions are exploited relentlessly by those who oppose liberty & understand the manipulative power of the mass-TV-media.

  • Cool Ranch, Texas

    When we develop or discover new skills to improve our own lot, we gain the ability to make a better contribution to our friends and fellows.

Sign In

Forgot password?

Or

Subscribe

Receive daily coverage of the people, politics and personality of Capitol Hill.

Subscription | Free Trial

Logging you in. One moment, please...