Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
November 26, 2014

Shutdown-Averting Endgame Buys All Sides a Second Play

Consider the notion that a deal is already baked and that sometime next week Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell will unspool a maneuver that not only averts a partial government shutdown but also saves Speaker John A. Boehner’s bacon.

The latest installment of fiscal brinkmanship is careening toward its climax. The intricate parliamentary moves being contemplated will strike some as unworthy of a great democracy. They will reaffirm for others a part of what makes our democracy so great — or at least so fascinating. Either way, the machinations are a reminder that mastering process is an indispensable part of making policy and an essential ingredient for political success.

If it works out according to the complex and still-evolving design, the American people will be spared the frustrations of shuttered passport offices, barricaded national parks, delayed Medicare reimbursements and padlocked Social Security service centers starting in a dozen days. And all of the Beltway players in the melodrama can claim some victory.

The majority House Republicans might realize their long-sought goal of compelling senators to go on the record for or against retaining Obamacare. Their speaker would retain his tenuous hold on power because he allowed himself to be led by his rebellious flock and they all survived to fight another day.

The mainstream of the Senate Democratic majority can come to Barack Obama’s rescue, while a few politically vulnerable among them would get to spurn the president without substantively weakening him.

Senate Republicans would be able to avoid voting in favor of maintaining the sequester spending levels that some disdain as way off the mark. House Democrats could vote their consciences without any negative consequences.

And Obama could declare that he drove the outcome because he steadfastly refused to yield to the demands of the fiscal hostage-takers.

The biggest downside: Even under this best-case scenario, the budget impasse would only be bridged for a few weeks. Spending would continue uninterrupted until the middle of December, but there would be no accord on what to do in the intervening weeks, when the Treasury runs out of accounting options and has to borrow money to cover the government’s debts.

Increasingly, it looks as though the debt limit debate is where the most confrontational Republicans want to make their last stand against the health care law, at least for this year. They are somehow convinced they can reverse the patterns of public opinion and make Obama buckle under the perception that he’d be risking a government default to preserve his biggest legislative achievement.

At the same time, the body language at the Capitol suggests the House GOP rank and file is prepared to give up on the shutdown shenanigans with only one more round of fuss, and that both Senate leaders are ready to help that happen. It could work like this:

On Friday, all Republicans and a handful of conservative Democrats pass the legislation unveiled Wednesday that would keep spending going at post-sequester levels ($986 billion at an annual rate) until Dec. 15, while explicitly forbidding any money to be spent to implement the health care law.

When the Senate comes back next week, Reid takes up the House bill in one of two ways, each of which would have McConnell’s acquiescence.

Option 1 would be to start with a straightforward vote on clearing the legislation. It would certainly fail, but it would nonetheless afford the “defund Obamacare” senators their moment to have their disdain recorded.

Once that happens, demonstrating empirically to House Republicans that their goal can’t be attained, Reid exercises his leader’s prerogative to reconsider the vote, boxes out any competing alternatives by “filling the amendment tree,” as it’s called. He then pushes toward a vote on a straightforward 10-week continuing resolution.

Reid would need McConnell’s assurances that a half-dozen GOP senators would help break an inevitable filibuster by frustrated conservatives. That could happen because, in return, Republicans would be able to step aside and watch Senate Democrats provide all the votes needed to keep the shrunken discretionary levels in place a while longer.

That’s one way it could play out. Option 2 would be for Reid to arrange a cloture-breaking ballot on the CR at the outset, with that serving as the symbolic vote about Obamacare’s future. Under this scenario, the 60 votes to overcome the filibuster would come mainly from Republicans, who’d be voting “yes” as a way to show support for defunding.

Reid would then have to find a way to kill the anti-health-care-law language later in the process, preferably with as few as 51 votes. He might be able to do this with a straightforward amendment to delete the provision or a vote to sustain a point of order that the policy language is improperly catching a ride on a spending bill.

Under either option, a “clean” CR would then go back to the House, probably the weekend before Monday, Sept. 30, the final day of fiscal 2013. The bipartisan leadership bet is the bill would clear in the nick of time.

For that to happen, it would need support from a decent number of Democrats, who would view sustaining those low-spending levels they hate as being in Obama’s best short-term interest. But their votes won’t be enough.

That means the deal of the week would also require backing from most of the conservative GOP warriors, who would have to be won over with the promise that they’ll be allowed back on the Obamacare battlements soon enough.

  • George Allegro

    Adam Smith’s study of moral standards led him to realize that human beings had stumbled upon impersonal ways of cooperating that enabled us to transcend the traditional limits of our own individual knowledge.

  • Chris

    I’m simultaneously less optimistic and more optimistic. Less, because I think there’s a chance for a long shutdown. More, because I think that a long shutdown will allow Boehner to manage avoiding a default — am betting he’d rather shutdown the government for a while than risk default.

    My thinking goes like this. Same opening scenario as you have above. But then the House rejects the Clean CR along party lines. The House then passes a CR with the one-year-Obamacare-delay. This gets rejected by the Senate.

    The government shuts down. And the Obamacare Exchanges open. Lots of news stories about really low premiums available in the exchanges.

    Here’s where things get interesting. It is in both the Dem’s and the Speaker’s interest to make the shut down last a while. After, say, a week and a half, the Speaker can say he really tried. The Dems can say, it’s too late, there are $x billion of policies written already under the new law, you can’t roll it back.

    Now there are two scenarios:

    In one scenario, the next step would be that a Clean CR passes with mostly House Dem votes, but at a very low spending level to give moderate GOPers cover. And then – and this is where the long shutdown helps the Speaker – the debt ceiling limit gets raised with a minimum of fuss, because they just tried the one-year delay and it failed, everyone has made their point, shown their bravery, and exhausted the public’s patience.

    In another scenario, with, say, a two-week shutdown, the next step would be a CR+Debt Limit co-package, with more deficit reduction in future years as part of the CR to partially offset the debt limit distaste. On the one hand, Obama will claim victory because the debt limit increase will be clean, the CR will be clean, and only the spending levels – which is the hardest thing to defend – will be low and they will be higher than the ‘Boehner Rule’ level. On the other, Boehner will be able to claim that he shutdown the government to protect the country from Obamacare and that, since the CR and Debt Limit will go through as an informal package, he tricked the president into accepting spending cuts in exchange for increasing the debt limit.

    So I’m guessing there’s at least a 1-in-3 chance of the long shutdown, followed by a simultaneous debt-limit-and-CR solution.

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