Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
October 20, 2014

Posts in "House"

October 17, 2014

Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call Race Ratings Changes

 Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call Race Ratings Changes

Nunn is challenging Perdue for Georgia Senate. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

While national polls show a stable landscape, polls in individual races continue to show some movement. That movement leads us to make a number of changes to our Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings.

Most of the House changes benefit the GOP, while the Senate and governor changes are far more mixed.

Senate Changes:

  • Georgia (GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is retiring) from Republican Favored to Leans Republican.
  • Louisiana Senate (Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu) from Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican.

(Read more about the Senate changes in the Oct. 17 Rothenberg Political Report ($))

House Changes: Full story

October 10, 2014

Race Ratings Changes: House Democrats Decidedly on Defense

The House playing field continues to shift in favor of Republicans as President Barack Obama’s slumping job approval numbers cast a shadow over the landscape and Democrats shift their financial resources from offensive opportunities to defensive positions.

At the beginning of the cycle, Republicans David Valadao of California, Rodney Davis of Illinois, and Dan Benishek of Michigan were three of the top House Democratic targets anywhere in the country. Now all three are on the fringes of the conversation about competitive races.

California’s 21st District. Democrats are about to fall short of winning this Northern California district for the second straight cycle. Valadao has been consistently strong this year, even though Obama won the district in the last two presidential cycles. Democrat Amanda Renteria’s challenge has never really materialized, even though national Democrats were ecstatic about her successful recruitment. She may well try again in 2016, but 2014 doesn’t look like her year. We’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from Leans Republican to Republican Favored. Full story

October 8, 2014

6 Races Both Parties View Completely Differently

 6 Races Both Parties View Completely Differently

Peterson was targeted from the beginning. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

While Democratic and Republican operatives have their own analysis on each race, they often agree on how close a race is and which candidate has the edge.

Sometimes, however, they have wildly different views on where races stand.

In California’s 52nd and Florida’s 2nd, for example, both parties agree the race is close and they have resigned themselves to slogging it out until the end with expensive television ad campaigns. In West Virginia’s 3rd District, the parties disagreed for months which candidate is better-positioned to win — and now they agree Rep. Nick J. Rahall II’s re-election will be a close contest.

But when the parties disagree, their views can be fundamentally different. In at least six contests this cycle, party operatives disagree on where the races stand and where they are headed.

Here is a look at a half-dozen seats where strategists aren’t on the same page — and sometimes seem to be reading out of totally different books. Full story

October 3, 2014

Three Election Trends That Could End in 2014

 Three Election Trends That Could End in 2014

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

I’m not certain how long a trend has to exist before it earns the status of an immutable political “law,” but three longtime truths are threatened this election cycle. Will all of them fall in November?

Trend #1: One party holds the Pennsylvania governorship for eight years and then loses the office to the other party.

You need to go back to World War II to find a time when Pennsylvania didn’t alternate its top elected office between the two major parties every eight years. Full story

October 1, 2014

Could a Four-Second Mistake Cost a Candidate Thousands of Dollars?

 Could a Four Second Mistake Cost a Candidate Thousands of Dollars?

Democrats took issue with Schilling’s disclaimer. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A disclaimer may seem like a rote few seconds in a campaign ad, but failing to follow the specific guidelines could have costly consequences for a candidate.

On Sept. 16, former Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., aired a 30-second ad titled, “How Could You?” that accused Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos of cutting benefits for military veterans. Democrats promptly sent a letter to television stations in Illinois’ 17th District, taking issue with the disclaimer on Schilling’s ad and arguing the Republican forfeited his right to the lowest unit charge for the remainder of the race.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about a potential disclaimer problem in an ad by Rep. Brad Schneider’s campaign. But the Illinois Democrat’s ad appeared to toe Federal Election Commission guidelines while Schilling’s ad may have violated Federal Communications Commission guidelines.

There are some differences. Full story

September 29, 2014

Shift in Landscape Makes Bigger GOP House Gains Possible

 Shift in Landscape Makes Bigger GOP House Gains Possible

Davis attends Republican Day at the Illinois State Fair in August. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Only three times since the Civil War, as any political junkie knows, has the president’s party gained House seats in midterm elections — in 1934, 1998 and 2002. It now seems quite clear 2014 won’t be another exception to that rule.

But a year and a half ago, that wasn’t a sure thing. In fact, while everyone understood the House playing field would be narrow once again in 2014, questions about the GOP’s political dexterity raised the possibility of small net Democratic gains this cycle. Full story

September 26, 2014

GOP Opportunities Expand in the House

Regardless of whether you want to call it a wave, the fight for the House continues to creep into Democratic territory.

Many of the Republican incumbents who were expected to have challenging races this cycle, including New York Rep. Chris Gibson, Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman and Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis, are starting the general-election sprint in stronger-than-expected position. Also, some Democratic incumbents, such as New York’s Dan Maffei, are in much closer races than anticipated. And now some hot spots, such as Hawaii’s 1st District, are popping up as potential Democratic headaches and look vulnerable.

We changed the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating in nine House races this week, one in favor of the Democrats and eight in favor of Republicans.

Once race moved in the Democrats’ direction:

  • Nebraska’s 2nd District – From Tossup/Tilts Republican to Pure Tossup

Eight races moved in the Republicans’ direction: Full story

September 17, 2014

The Amazingly Static House Playing Field

 The Amazingly Static House Playing Field

Shea-Porter’s race is now rated Tossup. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

After a year of campaigning, television ads, a government shutdown, and a botched rollout of HealthCare.gov, the House playing field is virtually unchanged from where it was 12 months ago.

We recently updated the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings in seven House districts. Arizona’s 1st District, Maine’s 2nd District, New Hampshire’s 1st District, and New York’s 21st District all moved incrementally toward Republicans. Ohio’s 6th and 14th districts and Pennsylvania’s 8th District also moved toward the GOP but to currently Safe.

By dropping the trio of races from the list of most competitive races, the total number of competitive seats (seats that have a chance of changing partisan hands) dips to 48 seats. That is remarkably similar to last September, when we listed 49 seats on our competitive race chart. Full story

September 15, 2014

Will Women Lose Ground in the House GOP After 2014?

 Will Women Lose Ground in the House GOP After 2014?

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Republicans are at virtually no risk of losing their House majority in November, but there is a little extra pressure to win a handful of key districts in order to avoid taking a step back in the number of women in the Republican conference.

Republicans have been on the defensive about their appeal to women voters and the lack of female candidates. Some previous studies and news reports have put some unreasonable expectations on how many women Republicans “should” be electing. (You can read my April 2014 piece, “Why Republicans Have Trouble Electing Women to Congress,” for background information.)

Most GOP strategists would agree that starting the 114th Congress with more Republican women than the 113th Congress is a bare minimum goal. But achieving that goal is not guaranteed. Full story

By Nathan L. Gonzales Posted at 5 a.m.
House

September 4, 2014

Republicans Use Birth Control as Campaign Wedge

 Republicans Use Birth Control as Campaign Wedge

Tillis has softened his stance. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Politics is mostly about both parties regurgitating well-established positions (on taxes, the environment, abortion and spending, for example) to appeal to base voters and demonize their opponents. But every so often, candidates from one party try a dramatically new message.

That’s what is happening now in a number of swing districts and states, as a handful of Republicans have come out in favor of allowing contraceptives to be sold over the counter.

The position was initially taken by Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal in a December 13, 2012 Wall Street Journal op-ed, “The End of Birth-Control Politics.” In the piece, Jindal said the use of birth control “is a personal matter — the government shouldn’t be in the business of banning it or requiring a woman’s employer to keep tabs on her use of it.” Full story

September 3, 2014

House Candidate May Have Faulty Disclaimer in Campaign Ad

 House Candidate May Have Faulty Disclaimer in Campaign Ad

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider unveiled his first television ad Tuesday in his competitive race for re-election in Illinois’ 10th District. The 30-second spot tries to rally Democratic voters by attacking the tea party — but the ad also might have a faulty disclaimer that runs afoul of campaign finance law.

Twenty-one seconds into “Together,” the congressman begins his disclaimer: “I’m Brad Schneider and I approve this message because we’re all in this together, accountable to each other.” But the voiceover is coupled with two shots: one of part of the side of Schneider’s face in a shadow as he drives a car and a second shot of him quickly entering a building through a revolving door and barely showing his face. Full story

August 29, 2014

Top 5 Races to Watch in the Southwest

azpol14 076 080914 Top 5 Races to Watch in the Southwest

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The battle for the Southwest really boils down to just one state: Arizona.

There is a lone congressional district in South Texas worth watching, but the majority of the action in the region is in the Grand Canyon State.

Two races dropped off the the list since last summer. The Texas Senate race is no longer worth watching after incumbent Republican John Cornyn dominated Rep. Steve Stockman in the GOP primary. And the race in Texas’ 16th District never materialized when no Hispanic candidate stepped up to challenge freshman Rep. Beto O’Rourke in the Democratic primary.

Here are the top five races to watch in the Southwest this fall: Full story

August 28, 2014

Top 5 Races to Watch in the South

 Top 5 Races to Watch in the South

Landrieu’s race could decide the majority. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The South continues to be dominated by big Senate races, with a couple of interesting House races sprinkled in for fun.

There have been two changes to the 5 races to watch list since last summer. North Carolina’s 7th District dropped off after Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre chose retirement instead of another competitive race against Republican David Rouzer. The Kentucky Senate race is still competitive between Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, but everyone will be watching that race regardless of whether I include it on the list.

Here are the top five races to watch in the South next year: Full story

August 27, 2014

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is…Part II

simpson 007 061114 And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is…Part II

Simpson was a top target this cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Three and a half months ago, I wrote about the state of the fight between the Republican establishment’s pragmatic conservative candidates and tea party/libertarian/anti-establishment conservatives.

I concluded the results were mixed and it was too early to call a winner, though I also noted, “it’s already clear that the pragmatist conservatives have stopped the anti-establishment’s electoral momentum.”

Now that this cycle’s version of the fight is almost over, it’s time for a final assessment. Full story

Top 4 Races to Watch in the Mountain Region

gardner 196 062414 Top 4 Races to Watch in the Mountain Region

Gardner hopes to unseat Udall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

There are a lot of wide open spaces in the Rocky Mountain West — but few competitive races.

Despite a dearth of important contests, the races to watch here could be good indicators of which party has the upper hand in the fall.

Three races dropped from our Top 5 list since last summer. Idaho’s 2nd District is no longer worth watching after Rep. Mike Simpson defeated attorney Bryan Smith in the Republican primary. The Montana Senate race is now a likely GOP takeover after appointed Sen. John Walsh faced plagiarism charges and dropped out of the race. And Utah’s 4th District is all-but-over since Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson chose retirement over another competitive race with Republican Mia Love. Full story

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