In Massachusetts Senate PPP Poll, Read the Numbers — Not the Memo

Markey is running for Senate. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Another public poll, this one from Public Policy Polling, shows a tight race for Senate in Massachusetts. But more interesting is what the Democratic firm does not discuss in its very brief memo about the June 25 special election.

The survey showed Rep. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., leading Republican Gabriel Gomez by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent. That marked a slight increase from Markey’s 4-point margin in a PPP poll two weeks earlier. It’s a single digit margin that is similar to most other post-primary polls.

Even when the PPP numbers seem reasonable, as these do, the firm’s memos accompanying its data usually have a clear Democratic tilt, highlighting results that seem to enhance the Democrat’s standing in the race. This memo is particularly misleading. Full story

Massachusetts Senate Special-Election Race Still Looks Tight

A new poll conducted for Republican Gabriel Gomez’s campaign shows Gomez trailing Democratic Rep. Edward J. Markey by just 3 points.

The May 5-7 poll of 800 likely special election voters by OnMessage Inc., a Republican political consulting firm, found Markey leading Gomez 46 percent to 43 percent, with 11 percent undecided. According to an OnMessage polling memo, respondents “were stratified by county based on previous election results to reflect historic voter trends.” Full story

Partisanship Ruled in South Carolina Special Election

(Davis Turner/Getty Images)

Mark Sanford’s victory in the special election in South Carolina’s 1^st District tell us little new about the 2014 elections. But it does serve as a reminder about one important factor in American politics that shouldn’t be ignored when the midterms roll around: partisanship.

At the end of the day, most Republican voters in the district decided to vote Republican, even though their nominee had more than his share of warts.

Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch might well have won in a more competitive district, but she could not convince Republican voters — conservative Republican voters — that she was a safe choice or that Sanford was unacceptable. Full story

South Carolina Special a Photo Finish?

With the special election in South Carolina just one day away, both Republicans and Democrats are unsure of the outcome.

Former Palmetto State Gov. Mark Sanford, a Republican, began with a narrow advantage over Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, but even Republicans pulling for Sanford believe that he has failed to run the strong race he needed to in order to hold onto the reliably GOP seat. Full story

Parties Prepare to Spin Colbert Busch Win

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the party’s super PAC, the House Majority PAC, have spent well over half a million dollars in an effort to win a special election in South Carolina’s 1st District, a reliably Republican seat that is competitive only because Republicans nominated controversial former Gov. Mark Sanford.

But even if Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch wins the special election and gains Democrats another House seat, the party will likely have to spend millions of dollars to have any chance of holding the seat in the 2014 midterm elections. In the meantime, the additional seat will not affect the fate of legislation that the House is likely to deal with during the next year and a half.

Given that, why would Democrats invest that much money in the special election?

“The competitiveness of this race proves that when Republicans nominate fundamentally flawed candidates, Democrats can put even overwhelmingly Republican seats in play,” said Jesse Ferguson, the deputy executive director of the DCCC, who notes that the same thing might happen in other districts in 2014. Full story

Don’t Write Off Massachusetts Senate Race Just Yet

Markey, who has been in Congress since 1977, begins the Senate race as the clear frontrunner. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Senate special election in Massachusetts took an interesting turn this week, when former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez drew more than 50 percent of the vote to win the GOP nomination.

Gomez will face Rep. Edward J. Markey on June 25. Markey won the Democratic nomination with 57 percent of the vote over Rep. Stephen F. Lynch.

The total GOP primary vote was less than what Lynch received in the Democratic race, and the Bay State’s Democratic bent is undeniable. But Gomez has an interesting story, and at least the GOP didn’t nominate an old white guy who had served in the Massachusetts Legislature. (Gomez beat former U.S. Attorney Mike Sullivan and Dan Winslow, a current member of the state House.)

Democrats won’t allow themselves to be surprised the way they were when Scott P. Brown beat Martha Coakley in the last Senate special election, in early 2010, and the national party’s image can’t do anything but hurt Gomez’s already uphill chances. But there is no reason to rush to judgment on this race, at least for a couple of weeks, and it’s worth watching to see how it unfolds. Obviously, Markey begins as the clear favorite.

GOP Throwing Another Race Away, Mark Sanford Style

(Davis Turner/Getty Images)

Republicans are on quite a streak when it comes to throwing away elections.

In 2010, it was Christine O’Donnell of Delaware, Ken Buck of Colorado and Sharron Angle of Nevada. Then, in 2012, it was Todd Akin of Missouri and Richard Mourdock of Indiana.

And now? And now it might be Mark Sanford of South Carolina.

Apparently uncomfortable that they might win an election, GOP voters in South Carolina’s 1st District decided to nominate the disgraced former governor in the special election to fill the seat of Republican Tim Scott, who was appointed to the Senate earlier this year.

But Sanford’s ability to win the special didn’t seem all that much at risk until his ex-wife complained that the former governor trespassed at her home, after which Sanford issued an un-persuasive statement explaining his behavior. Full story

South Carolina 1st District Poll: It’s All About Context

The campaign of Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the Democratic nominee for the special election in South Carolina’s 1^st District, released a poll Monday. As with all polls, context matters, so be careful before jumping to conclusions either way.

Conducted for the campaign by Lake Research Partners, the survey shows Colbert Busch leading in general election ballot tests against both Republicans in the runoff, 47 percent to 44 percent over former Gov. Mark Sanford and 48 percent to 39 percent against Curtis Bostic, a social conservative who served on the Charleston County council.

According to the press release, the poll showed Colbert Busch with “a 2-to-1 favorability rating at 48 percent and 24 percent …”

The release did not include name ID or favorability ratings for either of the Republicans, but it included plenty of campaign propaganda about how great Colbert Busch is and how she will be an “independent voice” for South Carolina.

For Democrats, the poll offers at least some reason for hope. After all, Colbert Busch’s favorable/unfavorable ratings are good, and it’s almost always better to be ahead rather than behind in a ballot test.

But there are also reasons for Democrats — and for Colbert Busch — to worry. Huge reasons. Full story

Getting to Know the Massachusetts GOP Senate Hopefuls (VIDEO)

Two of the Republican Senate hopefuls in Massachusetts are out with new campaign videos. Do yourself a favor and give them a look.

First up is Gabriel Gomez, who is out with a 2-minute introductory video. The spot opens with eight seconds of Gomez, whose parents immigrated to the United States from Colombia, speaking Spanish. The former Navy Seal with an MBA from Harvard Business School is shown in various settings talking about his background and values, as well as about Washington, D.C.’s problems. He bills himself as a “new kind of Republican.”

State Rep. Dan Winslow also has a new video. In it, he rails against “Washington insiders.” It is worth a look as well.

Gomez and Winslow face former U.S. Attorney Michael J. Sullivan in the GOP primary. The winner will be the underdog in the special election against either Rep. Edward J. Markey or Rep. Stephen F. Lynch, who are vying for the Democratic nod. The two Democrats launched the first ads of the Senate race on Tuesday. The primary is April 30.