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December 22, 2014

Posts in "Colorado"

November 4, 2014

GOP Candidates More Popular Than Democrats in Top Senate Races

 GOP Candidates More Popular Than Democrats in Top Senate Races

Landrieu arrives at a rally with supporters in Shreveport. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Here is an emerging surprise of the midterm elections: Republican candidates are more popular than Democratic candidates in top Senate contests.

It’s no secret the path to victory for Democrats in the Senate was to demonize GOP candidates in the eyes of voters who are dissatisfied with President Barack Obama. For much of the cycle, Democrats were banking on their incumbents’ personal popularity and connection to each of their states being enough to carry them to victory.

But after millions of dollars worth of attack ads, Republican candidates appear to have weathered the Democratic storm and are held in higher standing with voters coming into Election Day in a handful of key contests.

Full story

November 3, 2014

Election Eve Updates from The Rothenberg Political Report

With just hours before Election Day, the only question is how good of a night it will be for Republicans.

In the Senate, the following states have been updated: Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky and West Virginia.

In the House, we’ve updated the state of play in the following districts: Arkansas’ 2nd, California’s 52nd, Georgia’s 12th, Michigan’s 6th, Nebraska’s 2nd, New York’s 1st and Utah’s 4th.

Roll Call Election Map: Race Ratings for Every Seat

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September 30, 2014

Family Ties May Not Be Enough to Save Vulnerable Senators

 Family Ties May Not Be Enough to Save Vulnerable Senators

Landrieu may not be laughing come November. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

It seems like everyone wrote the story: Family political dynasties were supposed to save Mark Begich, Mark Pryor and Mary L. Landrieu, the trio of vulnerable Democratic senators running for re-election in Republican-leaning states.

But as the sports adage says, “That’s why they play the games.”

The three Democrats’ strong family connections to voters in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana respectively has been one of the most popular narratives of the 2014 cycle. Roll Call, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Newsweek and National Journal all wrote similar stories, just to mention a few.

But with five weeks to go before Election Day, Pryor, Begich and Landrieu are even more vulnerable than they were when the cycle started. And their Democratic colleague, North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan, is arguably in better position for re-election, even though she lacks a similar political pedigree. Full story

September 26, 2014

GOP Opportunities Expand in the House

Regardless of whether you want to call it a wave, the fight for the House continues to creep into Democratic territory.

Many of the Republican incumbents who were expected to have challenging races this cycle, including New York Rep. Chris Gibson, Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman and Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis, are starting the general-election sprint in stronger-than-expected position. Also, some Democratic incumbents, such as New York’s Dan Maffei, are in much closer races than anticipated. And now some hot spots, such as Hawaii’s 1st District, are popping up as potential Democratic headaches and look vulnerable.

We changed the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating in nine House races this week, one in favor of the Democrats and eight in favor of Republicans.

Once race moved in the Democrats’ direction:

  • Nebraska’s 2nd District – From Tossup/Tilts Republican to Pure Tossup

Eight races moved in the Republicans’ direction: Full story

September 24, 2014

Senate Chairmen Try to Avoid Historic Home-State Losses

 Senate Chairmen Try to Avoid Historic Home State Losses

Moran is chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

With just weeks to go before Election Day, the fight for the Senate is coming down to a handful of states, and two of them are very familiar to the chairmen of the two Senate campaign committees.

Kansas Republican Jerry Moran and Colorado Democrat Michael Bennet are trying to avoid becoming the first senate campaign committee chairmen to have a home state colleague defeated in the last four decades.

At the beginning of the cycle, both Colorado and Kansas were rated as Safe for their respective parties. Even as recently as seven months ago, the two states were not mentioned in any serious conversation about the fight for the Senate. NRSC Chairman Moran was focused on expanding GOP opportunities across the country while Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Bennet was focused on bringing back the Democrats’ majority by shoring up a trail of incumbents in the South and Alaska.

But a lot has changed, and the fight for the Senate has hit home for both chairmen. Full story

September 23, 2014

Fight for Senate Control Down to Five States

With six weeks to go, the fight for control of the Senate is down to five states, four of them currently held by Democrats.

Republicans must win only two of those contests to guarantee the 51 seats they need to control the Senate for the last two years of Barack Obama’s presidency. And they need to win only one of the Democratic states if they hold the only GOP seat at serious risk.

While things could still change — and national polls continue to show an environment that may produce a substantial GOP wave in the House and Senate — the Senate battle has boiled down to two reliably red states and three swing states.

Full story

September 8, 2014

Rothenberg: Senate GOP Gains At Least 7 Seats

 Rothenberg: Senate GOP Gains At Least 7 Seats

Pryor is one incumbent in perilous position. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.

Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands and, more importantly, where it is likely headed on Election Day. Since early polls rarely reflect the eventual November environment, either in terms of the candidates’ name recognition and resources or of the election’s dynamic, there is often a gap between how I categorize each race (my ratings) and what I privately assume will happen in November.

That gap closes as Election Day approaches, of course, since polling should reflect changes in name identification, candidate and party spending, and voter attitudes as November approaches.

Full story

August 27, 2014

Top 4 Races to Watch in the Mountain Region

gardner 196 062414 Top 4 Races to Watch in the Mountain Region

Gardner hopes to unseat Udall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

There are a lot of wide open spaces in the Rocky Mountain West — but few competitive races.

Despite a dearth of important contests, the races to watch here could be good indicators of which party has the upper hand in the fall.

Three races dropped from our Top 5 list since last summer. Idaho’s 2nd District is no longer worth watching after Rep. Mike Simpson defeated attorney Bryan Smith in the Republican primary. The Montana Senate race is now a likely GOP takeover after appointed Sen. John Walsh faced plagiarism charges and dropped out of the race. And Utah’s 4th District is all-but-over since Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson chose retirement over another competitive race with Republican Mia Love. Full story

August 8, 2014

Rating Change: Colorado Governor

Republicans appear to have avoided disaster by not nominating polarizing former Rep. Tom Tancredo in their effort to knock off Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper.

Former Rep. Bob Beauprez gives Republicans a credible nominee and polls have shown him within striking distance of the governor. But he has also been underfunded, and this looks like a race the Republican Governors Association is going to have to carry across the finish line if the GOP wants to win it.

The overlap with the very competitive U.S. Senate race between Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Cory Gardner and the competitive 6th District race between Democrat Andrew Romanoff and incumbent Republican Mike Coffman makes Colorado a top state to watch on election night.

We’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic.

June 25, 2014

Senate Long Shots Find Success Down the Ballot

colorado 36 072210 445x276 Senate Long Shots Find Success Down the Ballot

Buck, left, ran for Senate in 2010 and lost. (Bill Clark/Roll Call File Photo)

Giving up a run for office in the middle of a cycle may seem like admitting defeat, but for at least a couple of candidates this year, switching races may end up being the best political decision of their lives.

Republican Ken Buck was a Senate loser. The Weld County district attorney lost the Colorado Senate race in 2010 to Sen. Michael Bennet, a Democrat who had been appointed to the seat, in one of most often-mentioned tea party meltdowns in recent history. Full story

June 5, 2014

Why Do We Suddenly Care About Races for Lt. Governor?

The office of lieutenant governor is so important that five states don’t even have one, yet that hasn’t stopped the national political media from treating some contests for the office as crucial indicators of something.

In the recent primary runoff in Texas, anti-establishment conservative state Sen. Dan Patrick unseated incumbent Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by a sizable margin. The result received considerable attention since it fit neatly into the “tea party takeover of the Republican Party” narrative that has been struggling to survive since all but one GOP member of Congress won his or her primary through the end of May.

Maybe it’s the proliferation of political reporters and news outlets or the lack of other serious contests, or a mixture of both, but the conclusion that a race for lieutenant governor has some larger, long-term political impact is still unproved. Full story

March 18, 2014

Ratings Change: Colorado Senate

gardner 257 092613 445x296 Ratings Change: Colorado Senate

Gardner poses a stiff challenge for Udall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Colorado Democratic Sen. Mark Udall never had intimidating poll numbers this cycle, but uncertainty about the GOP primary raised questions about the seriousness of the Republican threat to him. But all that changed when Republican Rep. Cory Gardner decided to run for the Senate in Colorado.

His decision instantly gave Republicans a top-tier candidate in the race and quickly forced three other GOP hopefuls out of the contest. Gardner and Republicans now have a legitimate shot in the Centennial State this fall.

Udall led Gardner 45 percent to 44 percent in a March 8-9 automated survey of 689 likely voters by Harper Polling for the GOP-friendly American Action Network, which was released to CQ Roll Call.

The survey also showed Udall with a 39 percent favorable/43 unfavorable ratings compared to 28 percent favorable/28 percent unfavorable for Gardner. Thirty-seven percent said that the senator deserved re-election, while 50 percent said it was time to “give someone else a chance.” Full story

March 3, 2014

Why Ken Buck Has the Inside Track in Colorado’s 4th District

For the second time, Republican Ken Buck has failed to become a United States senator from Colorado. But his most recent campaign was not in vain and helped make him the front-runner for a seat in the House.

GOP Rep. Cory Gardner’s decision last week to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Udall had a domino effect. Buck, the one-time front-runner for the Senate nomination, dropped down to Gardner’s open 4th District instead of challenging the congressman in the primary.

Even though the filing deadline is still nearly a month away, the state party’s process for selecting nominees begins at Tuesday’s precinct caucuses. And since Buck has been working delegates for months in advance of his Senate primary, he starts ahead of any other congressional hopefuls. Full story

February 26, 2014

Gardner Decision Shakes Up Colorado Senate Race

In a surprise decision, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner has decided to jump into the Colorado Senate race against incumbent Democrat Mark Udall. While there are other Republicans running already, Gardner gives the GOP an upper-tier candidate in a race that has not been considered competitive until now. The news was first reported by the Denver Post.

Gardner is considered a rising star with the Republican ranks, but also a member who is somewhat risk averse. Up to this point, it appeared that Gardner was not willing to give up his safe 4th District seat for a long-shot run against Udall in a very competitive state. Full story

February 20, 2014

Obamacare Can Be Complicated for Republicans Beyond the Beltway

For Republicans in D.C., the Affordable Care Act is a black and white issue — you are either for it or against it. And they are all against it. But for many GOP legislators and candidates outside the Beltway, the politics of Obamacare is much more complicated.

In Oregon, state Rep. Jason Conger has been on the defensive for his votes to set up a state insurance exchange, Cover Oregon, as he seeks the GOP nomination in the U.S. Senate race.

According to The Oregonian, at least one of Conger’s opponents has attacked him for voting in favor of Cover Oregon, which had some well-publicized website difficulties. Of course, Conger didn’t let the charges go unanswered.

“Legislators don’t get to vote on federal law,” Conger responded in the article, saying that it wasn’t true his votes were the “equivalent of Obamacare.”

Conger isn’t the only candidate wrestling with the issue. Full story

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