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May 28, 2015

Posts in "Kentucky"

May 5, 2015

Senate Races, Pro Salaries and Perspective on Spending

Reid, pictured here with fellow Las Vegas native Bryce Harper, has railed against the influence of money in politics. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Reid, pictured here with fellow Las Vegas native and Washington National Bryce Harper, has railed against the influence of money in politics. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Complaining about campaign spending is a time-honored tradition, along with the Kentucky Derby and Major League Baseball. But a closer look reveals the dollars spent on controlling government pales in comparison to spending in other areas of life. Full story

November 24, 2014

What Did — and Didn’t — Surprise Me This Cycle

Every election cycle is filled with twists and turns, upsets and surprises. And every cycle is filled with goofy arguments, warnings about things that never happen and unsurprising outcomes that surprise only the politically uneducated.

For me, the biggest surprises included Dave Brat’s primary upset of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Thad Cochran’s win in the Mississippi Republican Senate runoff and Larry Hogan Jr.’s victory and margin in Maryland’s gubernatorial race.

Primary upsets happen, in part because reliable polling is so scarce. Without it, local observers have to rely on anecdotal evidence, which often is unreliable. But the idea that some underfunded college professor might deny renomination to Cantor, whatever his flaws and vulnerabilities, struck me as somewhere between silly and delusional.

Apparently, I was the one who was delusional.

Full story

November 4, 2014

GOP Candidates More Popular Than Democrats in Top Senate Races

Mary Landrieu

Landrieu arrives at a rally with supporters in Shreveport. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Here is an emerging surprise of the midterm elections: Republican candidates are more popular than Democratic candidates in top Senate contests.

It’s no secret the path to victory for Democrats in the Senate was to demonize GOP candidates in the eyes of voters who are dissatisfied with President Barack Obama. For much of the cycle, Democrats were banking on their incumbents’ personal popularity and connection to each of their states being enough to carry them to victory.

But after millions of dollars worth of attack ads, Republican candidates appear to have weathered the Democratic storm and are held in higher standing with voters coming into Election Day in a handful of key contests.

Full story

November 3, 2014

Election Eve Updates from The Rothenberg Political Report

With just hours before Election Day, the only question is how good of a night it will be for Republicans.

In the Senate, the following states have been updated: Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky and West Virginia.

In the House, we’ve updated the state of play in the following districts: Arkansas’ 2nd, California’s 52nd, Georgia’s 12th, Michigan’s 6th, Nebraska’s 2nd, New York’s 1st and Utah’s 4th.

Roll Call Election Map: Race Ratings for Every Seat

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November 1, 2014

Race Ratings Change: Kentucky Senate

Jesse Ferguson

The Kentucky Senate race is over, Rothenberg writes. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

One of the most watched Senate races of 2014 is over. Take it off your list of states that could fall either way on Tuesday.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has opened up a comfortable lead over his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky’s secretary of state, ensuring McConnell will win a sixth term Tuesday. Full story

September 23, 2014

Fight for Senate Control Down to Five States

With six weeks to go, the fight for control of the Senate is down to five states, four of them currently held by Democrats.

Republicans must win only two of those contests to guarantee the 51 seats they need to control the Senate for the last two years of Barack Obama’s presidency. And they need to win only one of the Democratic states if they hold the only GOP seat at serious risk.

While things could still change — and national polls continue to show an environment that may produce a substantial GOP wave in the House and Senate — the Senate battle has boiled down to two reliably red states and three swing states.

Full story

July 11, 2014

Imperfect People Get Elected to the Senate

Elizabeth Warren is a senator from Massachusetts. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Warren is a Democrat from Massachusetts. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

In the heat of the campaign, it can be easy to disqualify or dismiss candidates based on unsettling, or sometimes unseemly, revelations. But all you have to do is look at the current lineup of senators to realize that imperfect people win elections.

Connecticut is a great place to start.

In 2010, The New York Times pointed out inconsistencies between Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal’s rhetoric and his military service during the Vietnam era. It became a major issue in the campaign, but Blumenthal prevailed, 55 percent to 43 percent, over former wrestling executive Linda McMahon. Full story

May 7, 2014

Why This Year’s Primaries Won’t End GOP Civil War

Tillis is the GOP nominee in North Carolina. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call)

Tillis is the GOP nominee in North Carolina. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call)

The Republican establishment is fighting back, but winning a few primaries this year won’t do much to end the insurgency from party purists. It only takes one general election loss by an establishment candidate to reignite the fire.

Observers see what they want to see in the results, and they can be blinded by their preconceptions and personal preferences.

For example, state Speaker Thom Tillis won the GOP nomination in North Carolina on Tuesday. But if he loses to Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in November, anti-establishment Republicans will cry, “See, I told you so.” Full story

April 29, 2014

Warning: Senate Races Aren’t as Close as They Appear

Nunn is running for the open Senate seat in Georgia. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Nunn is running for the open Senate seat in Georgia. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

I’ve noticed with some alarm how many people fail to make reasonable distinctions among races that admittedly have some factors in common.

So let me make an important distinction: While Democratic Senate candidates Alison Lundergan Grimes, 35, and Michelle Nunn, 47, have difficult races ahead of them in Kentucky and Georgia, each has a path to victory.

Conversely, I don’t currently see a path for West Virginia Democrat Natalie Tennant, 46. Full story

March 5, 2014

Bill Clinton’s Real Impact on the Kentucky Senate Race

Clinton campaigns for Alison Lundergan Grimes' bid for Senate. (Luke Sharrett/Getty Images News)

Clinton campaigns for Alison Lundergan Grimes’ bid for Senate. (Luke Sharrett/Getty Images)

The national media’s reaction to former President Bill Clinton’s recent trip to Kentucky to boost the Senate candidacy of Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes was predictable.

Most of my colleagues in the media can’t resist a Clinton (Bill or Hillary) sighting, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s electoral test has become one of the go-to stories of this electoral cycle, even outside the Bluegrass State.

What is less understandable is why many of those who covered the Clinton event in Louisville didn’t address the question of his impact on the race in a serious way. Full story

January 7, 2014

Early TV Ads: Not New and Mostly a Waste of Money

By mid-December, more than $17.5 million had been spent on TV ads in just four Senate contests: in North Carolina ($8.3 million), Kentucky ($3.5 million), Arkansas ($3.4 million) and Louisiana ($2.3 million), according to a recent piece by Roll Call’s Kyle Trygstad.

The numbers are interesting and newsworthy. But it’s important to understand the dirty little secret of early TV ads: At the end of the day, most of the ads, and most of the money spent on them, won’t make a dime’s worth of difference in the November results.

I know because I’ve seen this movie before — almost 30 years ago. Full story

December 19, 2013

Race Ratings Change: Kentucky Senate

McConnell is seeking re-election in 2014. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

McConnell is seeking re-election in 2014. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

It’s no secret that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell faces a troublesome re-election bid. The Republican incumbent is taking heat from the left and the right on a daily (or even hourly) basis.

We continue to believe that McConnell is the favorite in both the primary and general elections, but there is no denying that his polling numbers are mediocre at best. Full story

December 17, 2013

How the Calendar Will Influence GOP Senate Primaries

Cornyn's primary is the first on the 2014 calendar. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Cornyn’s primary is first on the 2014 calendar. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Stories about Republican primaries are all the rage, and we’re still nearly three months from the first actual election. But in all of the analysis of vulnerable senators, voting scorecards and outside groups, it’s important to remember the calendar and how primary results could affect subsequent races.

It’s possible that a snowball effect could work for or against tea-party-aligned groups next year, depending on the outcomes.

The first Senate primary contest will be March 4 in Texas. Rep. Steve Stockman’s last-minute challenge to GOP Sen. John Cornyn got plenty of media attention. But unless Stockman can find a pot of gold (worth at least $10 million or so) at the end of a rainbow, Cornyn will cruise to victory. Full story

October 21, 2013

The Most Important Election of 2014

McConnell has two tough races in 2014 — a primary and a general election. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

McConnell has two tough races in 2014: a primary and the general election. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

So now we know.

The single most important election in the country next year won’t take place in Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina or Alaska. And it won’t occur next November, when voters across the country pick the next Congress. It will take place in Kentucky on May 20.

While the general election in the commonwealth — and in other states — could decide which party controls the Senate for President Barack Obama’s final two years in office, the GOP primary will go a long way in determining whether the Republican Party continues its evolution toward uncompromising utopian purity and, eventually, possible irrelevance. Full story

September 4, 2013

3 Local Races That Could Affect the Fight for the House

Local races rarely have an impact on statewide or congressional elections, but a trio of local races this year could have an effect on three competitive House districts next year.

The most immediate example is the special election for mayor of San Diego.

Republican former City Councilman Carl DeMaio lost the 2012 mayoral election to Democratic Rep. Bob Filner. But DeMaio is using that narrow loss as a springboard to challenge Democratic Rep. Scott Peters in the 52nd District, and the challenger starts that race in a very strong position.

DeMaio was thought to be preparing to drop his congressional bid in order to run in the special election to replace the discredited and recently resigned Filner. Doing that would have taken a top GOP challenger off the table for the National Republican Congressional Committee. But instead, DeMaio has re-affirmed his congressional bid, and he remains a strong Republican challenger for Congress next year because of his high name identification, proven vote-getting ability in the area and fundraising power. Full story

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