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- Long List of Possible Barbara Mikulski Successors
- Mikulski Will Not Seek Another Term (Updated)
- Russ Feingold, Joe Sestak and the Improbable Senate Race Rematch
Posts in "Nebraska"
November 3, 2014
With just hours before Election Day, the only question is how good of a night it will be for Republicans.
In the Senate, the following states have been updated: Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky and West Virginia.
In the House, we’ve updated the state of play in the following districts: Arkansas’ 2nd, California’s 52nd, Georgia’s 12th, Michigan’s 6th, Nebraska’s 2nd, New York’s 1st and Utah’s 4th.
October 21, 2014
In his recent column, “Weak GOP Candidates May Need More Than a Good Year,” Stu Rothenberg pointed out how a handful of under-performing Senate candidates could cost Republicans the majority. Similarly, though the House of Representatives is not in play, a trio of GOP incumbents could cost their party larger gains in the House.
Even as the House landscape continues to shift in Republicans’ favor, Reps. Lee Terry of Nebraska, Steve Southerland II of Florida and Michael G. Grimm of New York are perched atop the list of most vulnerable incumbents. And it’s not hard to see why.
Terry, Southerland and Grimm are all vulnerable because of self-inflicted wounds, and a great Republican year might not be enough to save them. Meanwhile, some of their colleagues, such as Reps. Rodney Davis of Illinois, David Valadao of California and Chris Gibson of New York, are facing much brighter re-election prospects — despite being early targets and representing more Democratic districts than Terry or Southerland. Full story
September 26, 2014
Regardless of whether you want to call it a wave, the fight for the House continues to creep into Democratic territory.
Many of the Republican incumbents who were expected to have challenging races this cycle, including New York Rep. Chris Gibson, Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman and Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis, are starting the general-election sprint in stronger-than-expected position. Also, some Democratic incumbents, such as New York’s Dan Maffei, are in much closer races than anticipated. And now some hot spots, such as Hawaii’s 1st District, are popping up as potential Democratic headaches and look vulnerable.
Once race moved in the Democrats’ direction:
- Nebraska’s 2nd District – From Tossup/Tilts Republican to Pure Tossup
Eight races moved in the Republicans’ direction: Full story
August 25, 2014
There aren’t many competitive races in the Plains States, but the region features some critical contests that could signal how well Republicans and Democrats are faring across the country.
A trio of races dropped off the regional top five list since last summer. The South Dakota Senate race is a likely Republican takeover and not worth watching at this point. Neither is the Nebraska Senate race after former Bush administration official Ben Sasse won the Republican primary. And Iowa’s 1st District is a long shot for Republicans.
Here are the top five races to watch in the Plains States: Full story
July 21, 2014
Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb., has a history of making races closer than they need to be — and 2014 appears to be no different.
Even though midterm turnout in Nebraska’s 2nd District should benefit the Republican, his inability to boost his own numbers and the potential that two third party candidates will make the November ballot raise questions about the Republican’s electoral health. Full story
May 14, 2014
I am not at all certain who or what Ben Sasse is. I interviewed him in February, and heard him speak to a large, sympathetic group not long after that. And, of course, I’ve seen him interviewed by others. But I still don’t have a handle on what kind of senator he will be.
In that regard, at least, the Nebraska GOP Senate nominee is very different from Sen. Ted Cruz. After talking with Cruz a couple of times when he was still seeking the GOP nomination last cycle, I understood the Texan’s philosophy and his approach to politics in general and the legislative process in particular.
“Cruz is not willing to compromise even if it means being irrelevant to the legislative process,” I wrote in a July 31, 2012, Roll Call column, adding, “If elected, Cruz certainly will join the GOP’s ‘Uncompromising Caucus,’ which includes [then-South Carolina Sen. Jim] DeMint, [Utah Sen. Mike] Lee, Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and a handful of others, making it more difficult for his party’s leadership …”
But Sasse (pronounced “sass”) seems to have been able to be all things to all people during his Senate bid this year. That means he’s a skilled politician, but it could also mean that some Republicans will feel terribly misled after seeing him in action in the Senate. Full story
January 24, 2014
Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry has a knack for making races closer than they need to be, but it will be tough for the Republican congressman to lose to no one.
Omaha City Council President Pete Festersen was the poster child for national Democratic efforts to get candidates into races in the wake of the government shutdown. On the ground, Festersen was considered a very legitimate threat to Terry and was viewed as the type of Democrat who could win Nebraska’s 2nd District.
Two months later, Festersen dropped out.
Democrats would love to get another candidate into the race (they have until March 3), but after hyping up Festersen so much, it will be difficult for them to make the case that the next candidate they find is just as good.
We’re moving Nebraska’s 2nd District to Republican Favored from Lean Republican in the Rothenberg Political Report/CQ Roll Call ratings. The move is in spite of Terry’s campaign, which couldn’t even spell his campaign pollster’s name correctly in a news release.
November 14, 2013
After seven unsuccessful attempts, Democrats believe 2014 will finally be the year they knock off Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb.
The congressman does have a knack for making his re-election races in the 2nd District more difficult than they need to be. And Democrats are ecstatic about their recruit, Omaha City Council President Pete Festersen. But it remains to be seen whether Democrats missed their window of opportunity.
Terry garnered just 51.2 and 51.9 percent in his last two re-elections in presidential years. In 2008, he narrowly won as Barack Obama carried the Omaha-based district and earned an electoral vote because of the state’s allocation system. But Terry’s lowest winning percentage in a midterm election was 54.7 percent in 2006 — a great Democratic year. Full story
September 20, 2013
My colleague Kyle Trygstad nearly declared the end to the Senate recruitment season recently, but House strategists on both sides of the aisle still have their work cut out for them.
With a little more than a year before Election Day, Republican and Democratic operatives are searching for quality candidates in more than a handful of districts. Both sides want as many offensive opportunities as possible to keep the other side pinned down in their own territory.
Down 17 seats, Democrats need more GOP takeover opportunities to make up for any losses and so they don’t have to win all of the competitive seats to get back to the majority next November. Full story
July 12, 2013
The Hawkeye State dominates the list of competitive races in the Plains. After the region hosted the high-profile North Dakota and Missouri Senate races in 2012, its trio of Senate races this cycle are likely to see action in the primaries — but not in November.
Here are the top five races to watch in the Plains states:
South Dakota Senate. Gov. Mike Rounds is the front-runner for the GOP nomination and the general election. His new primary challenger, state Sen. Larry Rhoden, does not fundamentally change the race, even if he runs as a conservative alternative to Rounds. Meanwhile, former House candidate Rick Weiland is running on the Democratic side, but his own party’s leadership is openly unhappy with their prospects if he is the nominee. Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating: Lean Republican. Full story
June 7, 2013
A cattle rancher and a university president get into a Senate race. Sounds like the opening of a bad joke, but it could describe the new political terrain in Nebraska.
Now that GOP Gov. Dave Heineman has declined to run to replace retiring Sen. Mike Johanns, a handful of Republicans are weighing their options for a seat that should stay in GOP hands. Former state Treasurer Shane Osborn didn’t waste any time announcing his candidacy, but he won’t have the field all to himself. Wealthy former state party chairman/2006 nominee Pete Ricketts will apparently decide on a bid within the next month.
According to Leavenworth Street, a conservative blog in Nebraska, millionaire cattle rancher Charles Herbster is a potential candidate for Senate or governor. Herbster — not to be confused with Jeffster! (see video below) — owns Herbster Angus Farms and Conklin, and has personal money and inroads in the evangelical Christian community that could boost his candidacy (via Nebraska Politics in Stereo).
May 28, 2013
Former Nebraska Treasurer Shane Osborn is likely to announce his candidacy for the Senate within the next few days, according to usually reliable GOP insiders.
While in the Navy, Osborn was detained by the Chinese in 2001 after the plane he was piloting was forced to land following a collision with a Chinese fighter jet. Osborn was elected state treasurer in 2006, but did not seek re-election in 2010. He was involved in a messy divorce. Full story