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April 1, 2015

Posts in "Utah"

November 3, 2014

Election Eve Updates from The Rothenberg Political Report

With just hours before Election Day, the only question is how good of a night it will be for Republicans.

In the Senate, the following states have been updated: Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky and West Virginia.

In the House, we’ve updated the state of play in the following districts: Arkansas’ 2nd, California’s 52nd, Georgia’s 12th, Michigan’s 6th, Nebraska’s 2nd, New York’s 1st and Utah’s 4th.

Roll Call Election Map: Race Ratings for Every Seat

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January 14, 2014

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

McIntyre is retiring, giving Republicans a strong opportunity to pick up his House seat in North Carolina. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

McIntyre is retiring, giving Republicans a strong opportunity to pick up his House seat in North Carolina. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

I wrote my first Dangerous Dozen open House seats column in this space 14 years ago, so I figured I might as well keep the streak going, though it isn’t nearly as impressive as Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak.

As in my Jan. 17, 2000, column, the districts are listed in order of vulnerability. “All of the races on the list currently are worth watching, but I’ve concluded that the races at the top of the list are more likely to change party control than those at the bottom,” I wrote back then. The same applies now.

Utah’s 4th District (Jim Matheson, a Democrat, is retiring.)

Barack Obama received 41 percent of the vote in this district in 2008, but only 30 percent in his bid for re-election. No Democrat will begin with Matheson’s goodwill or moderate record, making the district impossible to hold for his party. After November, Republicans will control all four of the state’s House districts and both Senate seats. Full story

December 17, 2013

Race Ratings Change: Utah’s 4th District

Matheson is not seeking re-election. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ-RollCall File Photo)

Matheson is not seeking re-election. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Jim Matheson’s retirement means the Democratic hold on Utah’s 4th District is all but over. Matheson represented the most Republican district held by a Democrat in the House. Now that he’s not running for re-election, his party will be hard-pressed to replace him.

The presidential numbers are dismal for Democrats in this district. Mitt Romney carried the 4th District, 67 percent to 30 percent, in 2012. John McCain won it, 56 percent to 40 percent, in 2008. And President George W. Bush won it, 66 percent to 31 percent, in 2004. Full story

By Nathan L. Gonzales Posted at 3:14 p.m.
House, Utah

July 15, 2013

Top 5 Races to Watch in the Mountain Region

There are many wide-open spaces but few competitive races in the Rocky Mountain West. Even though the important contests are few, they could be good indicators of which party has the upper hand next fall.

Here are the top five races to watch in the Mountain region:

Montana Senate. Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer accounted for his party’s A, B, and C plans for recruitment in this state, so Democratic strategists were willing to wait for his decision. So his Saturday announcement that he would not run for the seat leaves his party without a candidate and makes this a top pick-up opportunity for Republicans. GOP Rep. Steve Daines seems like a likely candidate, especially with Schweitzer out. Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating: Pending.

Full story

June 19, 2013

It’s Never Too Early to Fight About Polls

Matheson is a Democrat. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Matheson is a Democrat. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated July 25 at 2:26 PM |Bickering over polls is a time-honored tradition in campaigns. But the latest exchange of surveys in Utah’s 4th District is not just an example of partisan pollsters getting very different results. It is also a reminder of the importance of polling methodology.

Earlier this month, the National Republican Congressional Committee released an interactive voice response survey, conducted May 15-16 by a conservative outlet, Harper Polling. It showed Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, leading his GOP challenger, Mia Love, 44 percent to 41 percent.

Some Democrats grumbled about the validity of the survey. Full story

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