Rating Change: Pennsylvania Governor
Posted at 5 a.m. on Aug. 7
Time is running out for Tom Corbett, the Republican governor of Pennsylvania.
The incumbent’s ballot-test poll numbers have been mired in the 30s for months. The latest public poll, an automated survey by Magellan Strategies BR for Keystone Report, showed the governor trailing Democrat Tom Wolf 50 percent to 38 percent.
In fact, it appears the last public survey that showed Corbett above 40 percent was almost exactly a year ago. An August 6-8, 2013, poll for Democratic Rep. Allyson Y. Schwartz showed her leading Corbett 49 percent to 41 percent.
The worst part about Corbett’s standing is that it doesn’t appear things are headed in the right direction.
According to one well-connected GOP strategist, the governor is closely aligned in the minds of many Pennsylvania voters with education cuts. And it’s not immediately clear how he gets things back on track.
Wolf spent early and often in the primary to boost his statewide name identification, and that positive image has carried over into the general. It’s up to Corbett and Republicans to change that if they have any hope of winning.
We moved Corbett out of Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Democratic way back in June 2013 ($) and subsequently moved him to Lean Democratic. Now we’re changing The Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from Leans Democratic to Democrat Favored.