Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
February 11, 2016

RATINGS CHANGE: Massachusetts Senate

Brown's home state of Massachusetts is no longer competitive. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Brown’s home state of Massachusetts is no longer competitive. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

After three consecutive competitive Senate elections in Massachusetts, it looks like we’re in for a dry spell.

Rep. Edward J. Markey, a Democrat, won the June 25 special election by a convincing 10 points, and there is little evidence he will be vulnerable when the seat is up again in November 2014.

Even though the situations are not completely analogous, former Sen. Scott P. Brown’s 2010 special election victory followed by his 8-point loss in the 2012 election demonstrates the difficult task ahead for the GOP in the Bay State.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran of Kansas seemed to leave the door open to a GOP challenge to Markey next year.

“Today marks the end of the first mile in the marathon to permanently fill the Massachusetts Senate seat. Gabriel Gomez is well prepared to win that marathon over the next 16 months,” Moran said in an Election Night press release.

But even if Gomez runs again, he would face many of the same challenges. Massachusetts remains a Democratic-leaning state and outside GOP groups that ignored his special election bid are likely to focus on other targets in more friendly states, rather than assisting the retired Navy SEAL.

“Democrats may have won this round, but it came at a massive cost on friendly turf,” Moran added. “The same cannot be said in Louisiana, West Virginia, South Dakota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Montana, Alaska, Michigan, Iowa, and New Hampshire.”

Those are precisely the states where the fight for the Senate will be held next year — not in Massachusetts.

The initial rating for the 2014 race is Currently Safe for Democrats in the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings.

  • NorthboroughDan

    The Republicans in Massachusetts, where I live, would be smart to focus on state races. I cannot consider voting R at the national level, given the control exerted by Teavangelists. This is not a concern at local and state elections where I see value in diluting one party control. I like having a Republican governor, in fact.

  • Berkshire_Boy

    There has been much musing about the resurgence of the Tea Party and what effect it will have in the mid-terms which are historically not great for the party in the WH. But lately I have begun to sense an awakening of the Dem base too as the GOP continues to overreach and misstep. I don’t think this is going to be another 2010. The GOP can forget MA. Markey is there until he decides to retire. As for those other states, the GOP needs a sweep of the genuinely competitive toss-ups and baring the unforeseen circumstance, ain’t gonna happen.

    • Looey

      Having lived in MA for five years, it was a relief to move back to PA, although we had a Republican governor the entire time we lived there.I’m sure glad that we don’t live there now under Deval Patrick It’s amazing to me that MA is so liberal when it was the start of the Revolution. I guess it was taken over by a bunch of crazies.

      If you’re a Berkshire Boy, we lived in the Berkshires while in MA. Nice area, but not nice enough to live in permanently.

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