Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
February 14, 2016

Ratings Change: Texas’ 23rd District

Canseco is a former member. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Canseco is a former member from Texas. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Republican Francisco “Quico” Canseco is one of at least a couple former members running in 2014 who isn’t exactly being embraced by all in his party.

Canseco was elected in 2010 but lost re-election two years later to Democrat Pete Gallego, 50 percent to 46 percent. This cycle, Canseco is running again but is locked in a May 27 primary runoff with former CIA officer Will Hurd. Hurd finished first in the 2010 GOP primary, but lost to Canseco in the runoff.

This race appears to be suffering from a GOP enthusiasm gap. Republican strategists had hoped to recruit a Hispanic businesswoman, but she could not tie up her professional loose ends before the early filing deadline and decided not to run.

Low enthusiasm certainly doesn’t change the fundamental nature of the district. Mitt Romney won it with 51 percent in 2012, and President Barack Obama carried it narrowly with 50 percent in 2008. But it can be an indication of where Republicans will (and will not) devote financial resources this fall.

This race could come back into the conversation of the most competitive races in the country. But that’s not the current trajectory of the race.

We’re changing our Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from Lean Democrat to Democrat Favored.

  • Classical Liberalist

    How can you slot TX-23 into the “Democrat Favored” category when the Republicans haven’t even nominated a candidate yet? The district is widely regarded as one of the most hotly contested in the nation, so why the bold prediction? Any polls to back that your claims up?

  • alwaysthink

    This district is on the border and the residents think the GOP is crazy for their Immigration and Border Security positions. Just look across our Southern border and you can see it is Blue with the only exception being in NM. But that could also change this year.

  • Adam Smith

    Many things we rely on today, such as antibiotics and software, were developed by people who could only take the chance that others might find their products useful.

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