Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
December 23, 2014

Republicans Gain Steam in House Races

valadao002 051512 Republicans Gain Steam in House Races

Valadao is gaining steam. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

While political reporters and party strategists argue over whether there is an electoral wave ahead, district-level data demonstrates a difficult landscape for Democratic candidates in House races.

Democrats believe, as competitive races become more engaged and the party exercises some of its financial advantage to get its message out, that some contests will turn in their favor. That scenario is possible, but in many cases Democratic challenges aren’t developing as quickly as expected and some Democratic incumbents are struggling to gain their footing.

We’re changing The Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings in a half dozen House races, all in favor of Republican candidates:

  • California’s 21st District: The race between Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Amanda Renteria moves from Tossup/Tilts Republican to Leans Republican.
  • California’s 26th District: The race between Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley and Republican Jeff Gorell moves from Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic.
  • Illinois’s 12th District: The race between Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart and Republican Mike Bost moves from Leans Democratic to Tossup/Tilts Democratic.
  • Illinois’s 13th District: The race between Republican Rep. Rodney Davis and Democrat Ann Callis moves from Tossup/Tilts Republican to Leans Republican.
  • Michigan’s 8th District: The race between Republican Mike Bishop and Democrat Eric Schertzing moves from Leans Republican to Republican Favored.
  • Texas’s 23rd District: The race between Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego and Republican Will Hurd moves from Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic.

Related Stories:

Revised Election Schedule Submitted in Florida Map Case

NRCC Names Four More ‘Young Guns’

New Democratic Poll Shows Florida Congressman in Peril

Roll Call Election Map: Race Ratings for Every Seat

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  • Whit_Chambers

    Tsunami on the way

    • penguincompassion

      I’d love that!

  • Little_Tin_God

    I wish I could understand why people who have the most to lose continue to vote for the GOP who continues to take it away from them.

    • nifty

      Really? Last I looked it was the (D)’s taking away and give to others many of whom aren’t even citizens.

      • ShadrachSmith

        There are X$s for welfare. Every welfare recipient who votes for a Democrat is voting to reduce his share of the pie.

        Voting Democrat is voting against their own interest for welfare recipients.

    • nsirchov

      I’m guessing that’s not the only thing you don’t understand.

    • harrywr2

      You mean like my health insurance?

    • Chance Boudreaux

      Do you even Basic Economics bro?

    • Leader of the Resistance

      I wish I could understand why people think that the magical money tree is going to keep going. When interest on the National debt becomes the largest single expenditure, there will be no social welfare programs to be had.

    • Little_Tin_God

      Question. Which party over the last 30 years, while in the office of the POTUS, has maintained a surplus budget and lower deficits? Hint, it sure wasn’t the GOP.

      • rangerider

        Hint it also was not the commies :-)

      • numbers

        You brainless drone. These dems that are in the house now blocked maneuvered and did everything in their power to stop any assemblance of a lower deficit (lower spending).

        • Little_Tin_God

          Surely you jest!

    • Jorgitos

      My tax bill says otherwise. Democrats: The Party of Economic Terrorism.

      • Little_Tin_God

        You realize, of course, that your “tax bill” is due to the GOP and not the Democratic party? But then based on your comment, you probably don’t use your brain very much so don’t realize it.

  • dmreiter

    What the D’s did not anticipate is that Obamacare touches everyone. No one is immune. All but a very small minority is adversely affected. People that love it get a free ride off everyone elseses back. Obamacare, and by extension the Dems that voted for it, have inserted themselves between the average voter and their Doctor. This will be a rout.

    Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch of people.

    • vicupstate

      I friend of mine lost his job and had to go on COBRA. Thanks to Obamacare, he now has much less expensive coverage. He later found out he has stage three cancer. In addition to batting Cancer he could be facing bankruptcy too, were it not for Obamacare.

      As for that ‘free ride’ we have always been paying for it. We were paying it before with higher rates and premiums because the uninsured were going to the emergency room and the cost was passed on to the ones that did have insurance.

      • Jon Do

        COBRA Obamacare

        • vicupstate

          COBRA was in existence long before Obamacare.

      • strongmind

        we’re still paying for it. Though I’m sorry your friend lost his job, the reason why he is paying less into his cobra plan is that to pass obamacare,, the obama administration guaranteed the profits of the insurance companies — with your tax dollars. Our premiums will go up and we will pay higher taxes to “give” health care to others.

        • vicupstate

          He isn’t on COBRA, any longer, which was offered through his previous employer not a government exchange. The insurance companies now have to REFUND premiums if there rates exceed the claims. Rates rose 3x inflation BEFORE Obamacare.

          Obamacare was a GOP alternative to Hillary Cinton’s plan from the ’90;s.

          • scrutz

            Hey. Don’t confuse these guys with facts. They believe they have it all worked out with their nonsense and name-calling. At the end of the day I find them pretty entertaining and certainly indicative of the limitations of self-proclaimed American “excellence.” They sure have climate change worked out, don’t they? Just call Al Gore lots of names and keep your fingers crossed.

          • rangerider

            Well if we can not be honest, then let us just lie :-) Why? Because the ends justify the means :-)

          • vicupstate

            In other words, if you can’t refute the argument I made, you will just write drivel?

          • strongmind

            GOP alternative or not, it is a gov’ment program destined, like everything else, to fail.

          • vicupstate

            If you want ot live somewhere with no government, there are places you can do so. Don’t subject the rest of us to that.

          • strongmind

            there is a big difference between small government and what we have now. An enormous, poorly managed, ever growing, more intrusive failure.

      • rangerider

        Well! Gee! I guess that settles the question :-)

  • bflat879

    There is no reason to vote for any Democrat, they’ve lied about too many important things.

    • vicupstate

      Right, like lying about WMD to avenge daddy’s nemesis wasn’t important.

      • Jerald

        You need to learn the difference between being wrong (just as the democrats were on the issue) and lying. Until then, you are a tremendously stupid human being.

        • vicupstate

          Some Democrats did buy the lie, but they didn’t create it.

          • Jerald

            The CIA under Clinton and his appointed CIA director created the lie then?

            This is foolish. Our intelligence community believed he had WMD’s, the whole world did for the most part, even those who disagreed with us going in there.

          • blockmccloud

            Republicans lied about wmds and many American soldiers died.

          • bflat879

            Really. Can you name them? Apparently, you just don’t understand the majority of the worlds intelligence agencies believed Saddam Hussein had WMDs. I have never once heard that there was a time, before the invasion, that our intelligence was claiming he didn’t have WMD. Do you know something I don’t?

            On the other hand, Obama and Democrats knew “If you like your plan you can keep your plan.” and “If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.” were lies, yet they kept repeating them. If you can’t recognize the difference between believing intelligence reports and just flat lying to the American people to win an election. you’re on another planet.

          • blockmccloud

            GWB lied about WMDS you pos. Its a documented fact. You conservatives are worthless scum

          • bflat879

            Is “block” short for blockhead? Do you always call people, you’re in a conversation with, POS? I can think of no lie Bush has been accused of telling about WMD’s by people who know what the intelligence reports said, including Democrats in COngress. About the only ones push that line are left-wing pundits and the low information crowd like blockmccloud.

          • blockmccloud

            Bush LIED and Americans died you low information right wing parasite

          • rangerider

            They elected it so it is all theirs :-) Why call them democrats since commie is a better fit :-)

          • vicupstate

            Yeah , Democrats are evil and Republicans are saints. Go sell that Crap somewhere else nut job.

          • penguincompassion

            But wait, the Dems. believe the Republicans are evil and the Democrats are saints. Another hypocrite here.

          • bflat879

            I have a problem with both of them, however the Democrats are way more evil than Republicans. Republicans just aren’t too swift some times.

          • rangerider

            Thanks for making up what I said but then dumb as you are my expectations were waaay to high :-) Silly commie person:-)

      • Leader of the Resistance

        Are you saying Clinton’s Daddy made him pass the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998 that called for the removal of Saddam Hussein because he had WMDs? Seems to me that passed with all the Democrats voting for it.

        Or is there a different version of your history that you are working with?

      • Al Kraus

        That would be the same WMDs Hillary for???

        • penguincompassion

          When they’re backed into a corner, they’ll omit information such as this. It’s just as bad as lying.

      • Neal Sears

        Still pining over Saddam. Poor sissy libby

        • vicupstate

          Yeah, don’t debate the merits and the truth, just call names. Are you in 2nd grade this year or 3rd?

      • Jorgitos

        Try living in the present. Your guy became Bush.

  • Chance Boudreaux

    At this point, any White Male voting Democrat must either be an idiot or self-hating.

    • rangerider

      :-) Or a progressive commie :-)

  • ericdondero

    Notice Stu moved the Texas race to “leans Democrat.” Will Hurd, our Republican nominee is a black guy in case readers are unaware of this race. This is suburban San Antonio, heavily conservative, pro-military area.

    With Greg Abbott romping over hapless Wendy Davis the entire GOP ticket in Texas will be affected. Hurd could easily sail right into a win over Democrat Gallego.

    Bottom line: That makes THREE!! Black Republicans in Congress – Mia Love from Utah, the NFL star from south Jersey, and Hurd.

    Eric – Houston, TX

    • vicupstate

      Mia Love has been having some problems of her own. Might not want to count that one just yet.

      • Whit_Chambers

        You can count it. Mia is in.

      • ericdondero

        Headline in far leftwing (near communist) Huffington Post from a couple days ago: “Mia Love shoe-in for election, up 12 points over Dem opponent.”

        I dare say, if Mia was having problems Republican-haters at HuffPo would be all over it.

        • blockmccloud
        • vicupstate

          A new poll from Dan Jones & Associates and the Cicero Group, conducted on behalf of UtahPolicy.com and, oddly enough, Zions Bank, finds Republican Mia Love with a deeply unimpressive 44-32 lead on Democrat Doug Owens. Love, who biffed what should have been a sure thing against Rep. Jim Matheson in 2012, should presumably have a much easier time of things now that Matheson’s retiring, especially since Mitt Romney carried this district by a 67-30 margin. Indeed, in a hypothetical rematch with Matheson, loves trails 45-39.


          SHe has high name recognition (having ran just two years ago), is in a Ruby Red district with NO incumbent, and yet she is at 44%. Yeah, she will win, but obvious there must be some reason she is polling so weak. Is she that bad of a candidate?

      • ericdondero

        Turn-out here in Texas for Republicans is going to be astronomical, far exceed expectations. Texas Republicans are chomping at the bit to get to the polls. Dems could care less.

        Hurd will win, and probably win big. Which means, three Black Republicans in the House after November. That’s an absolute nightmare for the Democrat Party. If Blacks start leaving the Democrat plantation, they’re doomed in future elections.

        • blockmccloud

          The right wingers are already doomed. They have lost 90% plus of the black vote in just about all of the presidential elections. When Hillary runs in 2016, you can expect 90% of the black vote to go to her. The GOP will be given another monumental shellacking in 2016

          • ericdondero

            silly me, I thought Al Gore’s KKK-member Dad, Bill Clinton’s KKK-member mentor Fulbright, and Robert Byrd were Democrats. I must have missed that ‘R’ by their names somehow.

          • blockmccloud

            Robert Byrd was a CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRAT. Whose party is doing so terrible with latino, asian, gay, black, and women voters Eric? Is it the democratic party or your party? LOL Which party is calling for the voting rights act to be repeal Eric? let me help you with that.

            http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/texas-republicans-call-repealing-the-voting-rights-act

          • ericdondero

            actually no. Robert Byrd was a very liberal Democrat voting for socialist legislation nearly 100% of the time.

            And I could give a flip about conservatives. I’m a libertarian.

          • blockmccloud

            Robert Byrd was a conservative democrat. Basically a
            conservative. The GOP are the party of the KKK and the party that only
            got less than 10% of the black vote in 2012. LOL

          • ericdondero

            No, not at all. Robert Byrd was an ultra-liberal. Look at his voting record. Straight socialist right down the line. He was a carbon copy of Bernie Sanders, never met a gov’t program he didn’t like.

          • blockmccloud

            He was a CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRAT. Your party is the party of the KKK. That’s why you conservative parasites lost the black and latino vote for generations to come

          • blockmccloud

            yOU NEED to brush up on your facts. A conservative democrat is nothing like a liberal. Robert Byrd was a conservative.

          • ericdondero

            why are the Democrats losing white voters left and right? Even working class whites are now abandoning you all in droves. Individualist, self-reliance, hard work, not living off the government dole, no longer fits the Democrat agenda?

          • ericdondero

            How is it that you Dems are losing so terribly with ethnically European Americans? Do you have any appeal to whites any more, outside of nutty leftist college professors?

          • blockmccloud

            Your party is so extreme and out of touch and that is why your racist party can’t appeal to anyone besides an old crusty white conservative. Get ready for some more shellackings.

          • ericdondero

            Does it make you feel good as a Democrat to be a member of the Anti-White Party. Hate Whitey all the time, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Yeah, let’s just ethnically cleanse Whites from North America. Yeah, and those Jews, they’re Whites too. Let’s get rid of them along with those other Euro honkie southern right rednecks with all their stupid liberty stuff.

            Right?

          • blockmccloud

            You’re party of the anti-black and anti-hispanic party.

          • ericdondero

            Your party is the racist anti-White people party.

          • blockmccloud

            idiot, in 2012, we won a good chunk of the white vote along with the latino, black, asian, and women vote. We are the party of diversity and your party is the party of racist white people.

          • ericdondero

            Why do you hate people just because they lack pigment in their skin? You should judge people on the content of their character, not on the lack of pigment in their skin.

        • blockmccloud
        • blockmccloud

          Hey Eric, Romney lost over 90% of the black vote in 2012. That’s an absolute nightmare for the GOP.How much do you want to bet the right wingers get crushed again in 2016?

          http://www.loonwatch.com/2012/01/why-eric-dondero-former-aid-is-smearing-ron-paul-he-is-a-rabid-islamophobe-and-sharia-conspiracy-theory-nut/

          • ericdondero

            McCain got only 6% of the black vote in 2008. Romney increased that up to 8.5%.

            We Republicans don’t need 25% of the black vote. What we need is 11 to 12%. 15% would be awfully nice. But all we really need is to boost Romney’s 8.5% up to 10, 11, 12%. Doesn’t seem that hard to do with pale-faced Hillary as y’all’s frontrunner.

          • blockmccloud

            Get Rand Paul to run in 2016. I would love for Hillary to give that pipsqueak a double digit loss. LOL

          • penguincompassion

            But why does the Democratic Party must gather more than 90 percent of the black vote anyway to survive? There’s no other reason why then the party would have to exploit blacks in order to just stay alive. They would be in deep trouble should the party win just 75 percent of their votes.

          • blockmccloud

            The only people the GOP win are low information conservatives. That’s why the GOP are dying off. They will never win another presidential election and come 2016, the GOP will have lost the popular vote the last 6 out of 7 presidential elections. OUCH

          • numbers

            The black vote is beginning to wake up. They threw Sharpton out of Ferguson, chanted Jesse off the stage.

          • Jorgitos

            And it worked out great for black people! You morons vote against your own interests.

        • blockmccloud
          • ericdondero

            Yeah, I guess we should all become flaming socialists. We’ll have Socialist Party 1 and Socialist Party 2. Wouldn’t that make for super fun and exciting American elections?

          • ericdondero

            Is there some reason you don’t post under your name?

            What’s a “blockmccloud”?

          • penguincompassion

            loonwatch? Go figure…and from 2012 yet? LOL Get out of the basement and at least try to be sensible.

        • numbers

          Except this former Republican voter. Both parties suck and they just keep us fighting each other and do what they want. I am sitting out till the revolution begins.

    • blockmccloud

      And you right wingers will still continue to lose over 90% of the black vote every national election. The republican party is the party of the KKK. Embrace the suck right wingers

      • rangerider

        Another of the lying “useful idiot” trolls :-) Of course repubs do not get many black votes, since the blacks are afraid they may lose their free stuff:-)

        • penguincompassion

          To be truthful, not all blacks go for the free stuff, just the ones that feel they can take advantage of everything the Dems. promise them as long as they vote for them. It’s in essence another form of slavery. Sad, but true.

        • blockmccloud

          They don’t get many black voters because they are the party of the KKK

      • penguincompassion

        Remember, the Republican Party tends to think more of ALL of America’s constituents, not just some. btw: If you’re wondering, I’m an Independent that is fed up with the lib control of the Democratic Party.

        • blockmccloud

          Yeah? That why the lost the black, latino, asian, gay and women voter by large margins? The conservatives are an extreme minority in the US

          • Jorgitos

            Thank you, komrade.

      • Jorgitos

        Embrace ignorance!

  • Leader of the Resistance

    Wish Roll Call would notice that Steve Daines is running for the Senate in Montana and not the House. The House candidate is Ryan Zinke.

  • Lance Sjogren

    The good news in November will be that the Democrats are going to lose this election.

    The bad news is that the Republicans are going to win.

    • Raconteur

      Separating wheat from chaff…

      “…the Republicans are going to win.”

      Excellent analysis.

      I believe you’ll be proved correct in November, Lance.

      • blockmccloud

        If the right wingers win, will any of their radical legislation be
        signed into law? Nope. the right wingers lose because they are the
        racist party with a 19% approval rating and the out of touch party that
        are doing very poorly with latino, asian, black, gay. and WOMEN VOTERS.

      • blockmccloud

        the
        right wingers win the senate, their legislation will be blocked or
        vetoes and two years later, they receive a shellacking and lose both the
        senate and the white house AGAIN. ;)
        After totaling the electoral
        votes in all the solid blue states, it becomes apparent that even a
        below average Democrat presidential candidate could begin the race with a
        whopping 246 advantage,” the author said. “No wonder President (Barack)
        Obama was so confident of victory in 2012 for he knew the game was
        practically over before it began.”

        University of Virginia
        political scientist Larry Sabato said the hurdle for Republicans doesn’t
        look any better if you count the underlying votes by citizens, not just
        the electoral results.

        “Democrats have also won the popular vote
        in five of the last six presidential contests,” Sabato said. “The
        demographic shifts heading to mid century are all pro-Democratic.”

  • Raconteur

    The wave the corrupt mainstream media couldn’t quite make out (until now) is beginning to have a discernable outline.

    They’re barely able to see it now, actually…you can see it WAY better in the U.S. Senate races, where so many incumbent Democrats are already in trouble-and more races in play with each passing day.

    November 4th.

    Vote.

    • blockmccloud

      Incumbent democrats are all holding their own. The racist GOP are going nowhere as a national party and the GOP have a 19% approval rating. Shellackings coming for the GOP in 2014 and most certainly in 2016. Vote the racist republican POS out.

      • numbers

        “We got Shellaced” Obama…

  • Ed Taylor

    Voters know the myriad of lies the Democrats have told. We all know of the corrupt way this thug brigade operates the government.
    We know of the use of the IRS as a political weapon.
    We know of the crony capitalism, where our tax dollars have been used to ‘reward’ Obama’s campaign donors.
    We know that after 6 years of Obama, even a smaller percent of Americans are in the workforce.
    We know that granting work permits to 6 million illegal invaders will take even more jobs from low-skilled workers.
    We know Obamacare has become a pathetic punch line, and a burden….(.unless you are a member of a special interest group & getting subsidies).
    We know the Democrats need to go.

    • blockmccloud

      Just like when that republican POS George W Bush lied us into a war that cost thousands of American soldiers their lives. Republicans lie and Americans die. You are an ignorant racist right winger.

      • rangerider

        Congratulations! You make an idiot look smart :-? BettyBB is this you :-)

        • blockmccloud

          Call names because you cannot debunk anything I said. You sad pathetic right wing troll.

  • Neal Sears

    A Mondale Ferraro kind of election

  • Whit_Chambers

    Can you say Tsunami?

    • sumlikeit

      I don’t think a 2010/2006 style Tsunami is even possible. Republicans already hold most of the competitive districts. I’m guessing we’ll see 5-8 Republican gains in the House.

  • penguincompassion

    As this election cycle gains stream, I’m very happy to say after listening to all these liberals and viewing all their actions, I’m becoming more conservative. My vote might not net much here in Oregon, but I’m voting Republican right down the line!

    • penguincompassion

      steam, not stream

    • blockmccloud

      Wehby the stalker is going to lose by DOUBLE DIGITS in Oregon. ;)

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