Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
February 10, 2016

Rating Change: New York’s 18th District

sean patrick maloney

 Hayworth is a Republican from New York. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Republican Nan Hayworth isn’t the only former member of Congress looking to come back to the Hill. But she spent much of the cycle looking like such a long shot that she didn’t get the same attention as former Reps. Bob Dold of Illinois, Frank Guinta of New Hampshire, or even Doug Ose of California.

Up until recently, multiple GOP observers were less than enthusiastic about Hayworth’s chances of defeating Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, D-N.Y., in the 18th District. They lacked confidence in her campaign infrastructure and doubted that the former congresswoman could keep pace in fundraising.

But last quarter, Hayworth infused her campaign with a $500,000 loan and narrowed the cash gap. She had $1.1 million in the bank on June 30 compared to nearly $1.8 million for Maloney. Hayworth has also made some changes to her consulting team.

While we don’t place too much stock in her primary victory for the Independence Party line (since there were fewer than 1,400 voters in the contest), the district’s fundamentals suggest a competitive contest. Barack Obama won the 19th with 52 percent in 2008 and 51 percent in 2012, so there is the possibility that this race turns into a Democratic headache if the cycle takes a turn for the worse for the congressman’s party.

We’re changing our Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of New York’s 18th District from Safe for Democrats to Democrat Favored.

  • UpstateObserver

    This district is even….. favors Dems in Presidential years, favors Republicans in off years. The race is a pure toss up. It doesn’t lean in either direction. And the Independence Line does make a difference as Hayworth will be able to pull Dem voters on the line that she will share with Democratic Governor Cuomo (a shoe-in for reelection). Maloney will have the cash advantage, for sure. But is cash king in this District? Hayworth spent $3.3 million to Maloney’s $2.2 million in 2012 and she still lost. I say this race is a toss up.

    • MerlinMedic

      While I don’t know the district, that “Indepence” line is HUGE in NY, often controlled by the democrats & their proxies (the children of dem movers & shakers), getting that will draw a lot of voters who don’t want to vote for either party.

  • Patrick

    If I were Maloney I would be nervous. A poll just came out that has Hayworth leading Maloney 44-40% and Hayworth has a higher favorability rating. She also has the ability to self fund, evidenced by the infusion of $500,000 of her own money into the race.

  • Mercyneal

    As an Independn primary voter who for ed for Hayworth, I resent the author of this piece dismissing votes like mine. If the hardcore voters like me came out to vote for Nan ., this can only bode well in the general election,

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