Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
August 23, 2014

Fight for the Senate Still Very Much Up in the Air

hagan 271 042914 1 445x328 Fight for the Senate Still Very Much Up in the Air

Hagan is a Democrat from North Carolina. ( Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The bottom line looks about the same in the fight for control of the Senate in November — but some of the pieces of the puzzle have moved around dramatically over the past few months.

Republicans need a 6-seat gain to take over the Senate next year. Three Democratic-held Senate seats continue to be headed to the GOP: Montana and open seats in South Dakota and West Virginia.

Most Democrats are pessimistic about all three, though some party insiders continue to hold out hope that appointed Montana Sen. John Walsh can close his early deficit against his Republican challenger, Rep. Steve Daines. If that should happen, of course, national Democratic money could flow into the race. But for now, Daines appears to have a clear advantage.

From that point on, things get a bit dicier for Republicans.

The next two most vulnerable Democratic seats are the same as they have been for more than six months: Arkansas and Louisiana.

Aside from a largely dismissed (on both sides of the aisle) New York Times/Kaiser Foundation April poll showing Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., with a double-digit lead over his challenger, Republican Rep. Tom Cotton, surveys in the state have shown the race close for months. Some have had Pryor ahead, while others have shown Cotton leading.

My own reporting on the race leads me to believe that the contest is a statistical dead heat, though with Cotton holding a small advantage. (Not all of the polls, public and private, show this, of course.)

Cotton had slipped behind Pryor earlier in the year, but he appears to have improved his relative position through a series of positive TV commercials that have boosted his personal favorability ratings.

While Democrats have every reason to remain hopeful about the outcome, a well-known Democratic senator like Pryor — in a state where the president remains deeply unpopular — is in serious trouble if he is sitting in the low- to mid-40s and running even against the challenger. The Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rate the contest as Toss-up/Tilts Republican, and that is exactly where it should be.

Louisiana Sen. Mary L. Landrieu continues to run smartly and aggressively, but there is a broad consensus that she would get about 45 percent of the vote if the election were held today. That would place her far ahead of the almost certain second-place finisher, Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy, but force Landrieu into a December runoff.

In my view, the Senator’s prospects in a runoff would depend heavily on what happened in other Senate contests in November, and whether her seat would decide control of the chamber in 2015.

That said, she remains extremely vulnerable, even with her support in the business community. She isn’t in much better shape than Pryor, though the dynamics of the race are less clear because of Louisiana’s weird voting process.

If those two seats fall to the GOP, Republicans would need to net only one other seat to win control of the Senate, assuming they hold all of their own.

In something of a surprise, the sixth best Republican opportunity is now Iowa.

Barack Obama carried Iowa twice, so Democrats ought to have a narrow but clear advantage to hold retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin’s open seat. But the combination of an interesting Republican nominee, Joni Ernst, and Democrat Rep. Bruce Braley’s early missteps has smart Democrats fretting about the contest.

Polling shows the race extremely close now, and while Braley, a trial lawyer and four-term member of Congress, was expected to be the better campaigner in the contest, that has not been the case.

Ernst still needs to get up to speed on federal issues, and there will be an increasing focus on her now that the contest looks so close. Democratic attacks are likely to take a toll. But it’s no longer possible to see Braley as the clear favorite in this Senate race, which now looks like a Tossup.

As I have noted for months, Republicans have two other top-tier opportunities in Alaska and North Carolina, as well as an additional interesting opportunity in Colorado.

Alaska remains a serious Democratic problem, particularly given the national political environment. The state’s fundamentals obviously give a huge boost to the eventual Republican standard-bearer. But Republican prospects depend in part on the results of the Aug. 19 GOP primary, and Republican insiders acknowledge that Alaska Democratic Sen. Mark Begich is running a terrific re-election race. It remains a Tossup/Tilts Democrat contest.

North Carolina is something of a question mark, with Democrats feeling more upbeat about their ability to hold it in the fall. Knowledgeable observers agree Sen. Kay Hagan’s numbers crashed toward the end of last year, but they have recovered somewhat, and, more importantly, Democrats have scored points against GOP challenger Thom Tillis.

Tillis is the speaker in North Carolina, where the General Assembly is extremely controversial and has poor poll numbers.

Hagan appears to have a modest but clear lead at this point, and she certainly benefits from the fact that the Tar Heel State has been very competitive in the last two presidential contests. Obama won it narrowly in 2008 and lost it narrowly four years later. The president, then, isn’t as much of a drag in North Carolina as he is in places like Arkansas, Louisiana and West Virginia.

We have had this race rated as a Tossup but believe that Hagan has improved her position and note the financial advantage that she has over the challenger. We are moving the race to Tossup/Tilts Democrat, only a slight move but one that reflects how the race has changed recently.

In Colorado, which Obama carried twice, Sen. Mark Udall has a narrow advantage. Republican Rep. Cory Gardner is an excellent candidate, and his energy and sunny disposition will help make him broadly appealing. He had a strong fundraising quarter, ending June with $3.4 million in the bank.

But Democrats have already started to paint the challenger as out of touch on cultural issues, and he’ll have to keep the election’s focus on jobs and the economy to win. Moreover, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Michael Bennet, Udall’s Colorado colleague, and DSCC executive director Guy Cecil, are likely to pull out all the stops for Udall.

The two parties have significantly different views of where the race stands. We have had this contest rated as Leans Democrat, and we continue to believe that Udall deserves to have the advantage, both because of fundamentals and recent polling. But Gardner may well be the best GOP challenger in the country, and we are moving the race to Tossup/Tilts Democrat, which better reflects the overall competitiveness of the contest.

The three remaining GOP “opportunities” worth watching — in Michigan, New Hampshire and Virginia — all look like far longer shots. Senate Democratic incumbents Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Mark Warner in Virginia continue to have good personal numbers and clear advantages in the polls, while Michigan’s fundamentals and an unproven Republican nominee in Terri Lynn Land raise big questions about Republican prospects.

Republicans continue to talk up both Minnesota and Oregon as opportunities, but they are such long shots right now that they don’t merit much discussion yet.

Democrats continue to believe that they have two opportunities of their own: Georgia and Kentucky.

Republicans have been embroiled in a primary (and now a runoff) in the Peach State for months, so I have given little or no credence to early general election polling in the state’s Senate race. We now know the GOP will have a credible candidate for the fall against an untested Democrat. The state’s fundamentals make it very uphill for Michelle Nunn, so unless she is running strongly in early October, there is no reason to think that Georgia is a particularly good opportunity for Democrats.

Kentucky, on the other hand, remains a risk for the GOP.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s strong primary victory is worth noting, but the Senate race remains tight and antipathy in the state to the Republican Senate Leader remains considerable. In a bad Republican year, McConnell’s current positioning would be extremely worrisome for the GOP, but the president’s unpopularity and the midterm dynamic should help the incumbent.

Still, until (and unless) McConnell opens up a statistically significant lead, Democrats have every reason to focus their attention and resources on this race.

Substantial Republican gains seem certain. But while a Republican gain of at least six seats seems very possible, those six seats are not yet in the bag.

Related Stories:

Joni Ernst Money Chase Starts Now

Senate Majority Might Not Be Decided Until December

Relieved Senate Republicans Look Forward to November

Roll Call Election Map: Race Ratings for Every Seat

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  • http://johnnyangeladvocacygroup.net JohnnyAngel Advocacy Group

    Nobody mentions Minnesota and their funnyman Senator AL. I do believe that even Minnesotans have given up on liberalism. CA,MA and WA all are complete communist failed states , doubtful MN wants to go that way :-)

    • madasever

      I hope you are right!! I’d like to see reid retire!!
      please don’t forget our veterans
      obamacare = va care
      VA Medical Care = obamacare
      home of the fake waiting list, IRS big brother, doctor & hospital shortages!!

      • Vanbren5

        Reid is not going to retire! He’ll remain MAJORITY leader for as long as wants it! Boehner’s days are numbered!

        • Carolyn Palacios

          Sure sweetie, just keep telling yourself that.

    • sportsmedicine

      There are also many large medical device companies headquartered in Minnesota. As anyone working in healthcare could tell you, especially medical device, ObamaCare has been a disaster for healthcare in general.

      • ShadrachSmith

        If your senator won’t stop Obama, vote Republican.

    • CB

      NY is in the same boat with CA,WA and MA. Thank God I no longer live there!

      • ggm281

        Why do people keep dissing WA. It is nearly an evil red state with its reliance on “regressive taxation”. And unlike most (D) states, they have no looming underfunded pensions that will soon crush their budgets. I think you are confusing OR with WA. OR is a mess.

      • Bobloblaw67

        Dems in WA act like the GOP. No income tax in WA.

        • Vanbren5

          GOP is going extinct in WA,,, Dems hold ALL statewide offices ,,,,no tea party cross burnings allowed there.

      • Vanbren5

        New York is doing great! Low unemployment, high productivity rates, growing diverse population..republicans will be extinct there in a few years just like in California

    • spazaru

      California has a good future now that Jerry Brown has cleaned up the budget. Call it failed if you want. I don’t think so. Same with Washington; they are not failing at all. As long as people want to live in those states, they will be fine. People are still moving to California from all over the US, despite the constant bashing the state takes in the media and in comment sections.

      • ONOBONGO

        CA very well deserves every bit of bashing it gets.

        • Vanbren5

          California is light years ahead of the red states especially Mississippi

          • Bobloblaw67

            Actually CA has a higher poverty rate than MS when taking into account purchasing power. MS also has faster income growth than CA.

          • Vanbren5

            Not true!!! Mississippi GDP is well over 4% and growing… MS is losing population a had lowest poverty in the nation and lowest GDP…republicans want the entire nation to be like Mississippi and rural Texas,,,,we’re not falling for that!

          • Bobloblaw67

            what????? your post makes no sense.

          • Carolyn Palacios

            Liberals, not so good with the whole math thing…

          • Bobloblaw67

            CA highest poverty ratehttp://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2013/11/california-still-has-highest-poverty-rate-under-new-method.html

          • Vanbren5

            Republican trickled down economics never trickled Down to the trailer parks of MS, AL, rural Texas Democrats run all the cities and soon we’ll have the suburbs in Texas,,,there is nothing you do about this, it’s the future growing voting majority-white Liberals+ minorities = voting majority

          • Carolyn Palacios

            Wow, what a racist statement. You don’t own us.

      • Bill Harnist

        CA sells medical marijuana, and Washington recreational marijuana. I think you are smoking too much of the funny stuff.

        • Vanbren5

          Marijuana is Booming growth product found only in Blue states… Mississippi still has it’s Chrystal meth trailer park labs…republican trickle down never trickled down to the red states

      • Bunky

        If it were not for illegal alien immigrants, Ca would be losing population.

        • Vanbren5

          That might be true for Texas.. Which will be a blue state very soon

          • Bobloblaw67

            mmm…no. TX has a net influx of Americans moving there. Also hispanics in TX are more GOP than in CA.

          • Vanbren5

            Not true Texas Democrats registered over 800000 new Hispanic voters this year, Obama won Hispanics by 70% Texas will be ours soon and so will GA..there is nothing you can do about it

          • Vanbren5

            Republican have burned their bridges with Hispanics

          • Bobloblaw67

            Obama DID NOT win 70% of the hspanic vote in TX and sorry but the TX Dems didnt register 800,000 new voters. Dear Wendy is doing very very poorly with Hispanic voters.

          • Vanbren5

            White Single women in Texas are are lining up to vote Democrat as we’ll!!! Republicans there have over reached on oppression of women’ rights

          • Bobloblaw67

            That is why women support Abbot over Dear Wendy

          • Vanbren5

            We’ll the racist white men and their passive frumpy little, ‘submissive’ wives may vote for him, but the strong career driven independent thinking White single women are voting for Wendy!!

          • Bobloblaw67

            Wendy will lose by 15-20 points

          • Vanbren5

            If she does lose it will be close you’re going to discover the growing diversity and the chickens are coming home to Roost for republicans.. The vile hatred for Hispanics and minorities will drive them in… The Lt GOv race In Texas revealed how deep the hatred runs deep for all minorities and non Christians

          • Vanbren5

            This is the kind of stuff the don’t tell you on FOX News because FOX News is cult network..gotta keep the robots brainwashed

          • Bobloblaw67

            Wendy lost all the borders counties in the Dem primary to some guy who didnt spend $1 on his campaign

          • Bobloblaw67

            it is strange that what you want is a one party political system based on demographics. When the Dems would every election not based on good candidates, winning the debates but instead on demographics. I want you to think what type of country that would be. Where elections are detrmined not by issues but by race.

          • Carolyn Palacios

            They never venture far from their klan roots, do they?

          • Carolyn Palacios

            Yeah, tell Wendy Davis that.

          • Bunky

            So your immune to all this.
            Your job is secure and your taxes won’t go up and you won’t be a victim of crime?
            Because you’re a liberal this stuff won’t happen to you right.
            You love yourself some obama so you’re safe.

      • Thought Criminal

        CA is losing population and is an economic mess, no matter what propaganda comes from the Governor. Culturally a cesspool. Might as well give back to Mexico, they have earned it.

        • Vanbren5

          CA is GAINING population every year,,, over 10% per year,

          • Bobloblaw67

            no it isnt, geez . For the first time since 1850, CA didnt get an additional congressional seat.

          • Susan Gate

            Getting a lot of illegal aliens you mean? CA has figured out allowing illegals to live there boosts the population to still have the same electoral college vote.
            Boy I sure hope the initiative to divide CA into six states gets on the ballot, and all the Dem nuts can have their own state, and the high debt they have created and business flight.

          • lookout1

            US Census says you are a LIAR >.

            How bad are things in California? California’s domestic migration has been negative every year since at least 1990. In fact, since 1990, according to the U.S. Census, 3,642,490 people, net, have left California. If they were in one city, it would be the third largest city in America, with a population 800,000 more than Chicago and within 200,000 of Los Angeles’ population…

          • Carolyn Palacios

            Yet losing jobs. Can you do the whole math thing?

      • ggm281

        Budget is not cleaned up. Some parts sure, but the looming pension issue is still hanging over their heads.
        But (having been a resident of CA during Brown’s first two terms) I think Gov. Brown is a budget genius. I hope the next President decides to ask him to come to DC to help clean up the federal budget. Or at least to work with a couple of agencies to make them more efficient.

      • Susan Gate

        With a $300B or as high as $770B debt depending on the calculations, a $100B train, a judge has ruled should stop because it doesn’t meet the requirements of the law, and no plans for desalination plants for desperately needed water, Dems in CA are living on borrowed time before the collapse of CA happens.
        BTW, how are all those bankrupt cities doing? Fighting the public unions ? The unions that control the money and Dems in Ca.

      • lookout1

        Cleaned up ??? You funny you make me laugh ..

        California is a fiscal mess, its penssions are on the tens of billions.. if not over 100 billion ..

        Then you have a 100 billion choo choo train

        As for people moving?

        You must be kidding …

        http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Californias-Population-Moving-Out-182914961.html

    • Bill Harnist

      Forget about Minnesota as a Republican pick-up. As a lifelong resident of this collectivist state, I can tell you the statists in Minneapolis/St. Paul would vote for anyone or anything endorsed by the DFL. We have a Muslim congressman. Any questions?

      • Redyooper

        Too bad about 2.5 M of MN’s 4 M live in the cities. Much better rural-city ratio these days in MI.

      • Vanbren5

        MN is a very sophisticated State… Not many Teabagger cross burnings there, except where Michelle Bachmann lives

    • Ralph

      Spoken by a redneck Mississippian living in poverty.

    • Carolyn Palacios

      I suspect Oregon will go red this turn, also. I think in the quiet of the voting booth we’ll elect a Republican governor and senator.

  • Jerald

    Hagan is going to lose.

    • ONOBONGO

      Demos are going to lose.

    • Thought Criminal

      Funny how media pretends she is fine. She is not doing well

    • Vanbren5

      Hagan is ahead in all the Polls… Tillis is dropping like a rock!! NC DEM are fighting back hard and we’ll win handily,,,, there’s also a Libertarian in the race polling about 7% only from Tillis !

  • nemcrna

    If republicans don’t take the senate this country is finished.

    • Ed Bazaar

      Huh? You almost finished the country off when you started two unwinnable wars and cratered the economy. Obama has almost fixed your messes.

      • Poor62
        • Vanbren5

          Dumbya was and remains a severely learning disabled accident. His horrific tenure cost our Nation trillions and Obama is trying to clean up Dumbya’s wreckage.. Without repug help but it’s getting done!!

          • Carolyn Palacios

            He had better college grades than John Kerry or Hillary Clinton. People who know him say he is one of the most intelligent people around. All I know is he is probably smarter than you are.

          • altster76

            That’s for sure.

          • irwincur

            Wish we knew the grades of the ‘smartest man in the world’, Obama. Hell, we don’t even have a reliable record that he actually went to college. I assume he at least understood that his Stalin 101 and Goebles 201 classes were not going to look good when running for president of a free nation.

          • disqus_VxeNnTIVwA

            Carolyn, you must be very lonely because everything you say exists in your head, but there’s no evidence you’ve ever talked to anybody else or read anything, because you never have a fact. “People who know him say” is not too convincing.

          • stevenfranklin54

            Is it relevant what grades someone earned thirty or forty years ago? I’ve learned more in the nearly four decades since I graduated from college than I learned in my four years in college. And whatever knowledge I’ve lost along the way is information that I never ever needed to know or to use again.I’m sure that’s true about most of us.

          • Vanbren5

            Another Fox News Lie! It’s not Obama’s fault your life sucks. Your life sucks because you made terrible choices. You’re only going to get one chance. Stop blaming others and become a happy person. Only you can do it.

        • RedGA

          And things were quite fine until W decided to invade. We had good containment of Saddam. Inspections made Saddam defensive rather than offensive minded. No fly zones kept him in check. Tens of thousands of people including our own soldiers were NOT being killed and hundreds of thousands were NOT being displaced. Amazing how an entire region has been off kilter since that invasion that we had Mission Accomplished tossed at us. A few thousand American dead and tens of thousands of soliders scarred for life that did not have to be that way. How is that regime change working for you? Unfortunately, we have Obama making the same idiotic mistakes as W. If containment works fine, why bother with regime change? Why open pandora’s box?

          • lookout1

            Quite fine… yeah if you ignore 9/11…

          • RedGA

            Because that was caused by Saddam? Yeah, you gotta love the detour we took to take him out rather than locking down the guys who actually were responsible. Every single resource should have been devoted to going after those who actually WERE behind 9/11 rather than the tens of thousands of dead for a detour that STILL has us tied up.

          • lookout1

            Well after 9/11 we decided not to sit on out hands and let a homicidal dictator harbor terrorist that want to kill us..

            Perhaps you could turn the other cheek and wait for another coupe thousand NY’rs dead

            Most Americans wouldn’t… don’t forget 80+% of Americans supported Iraq…

            That is until things got Tuff and Democrats turned into cowards..

          • Carolyn Palacios

            If everyone totally agrees on that, then why did so many congressional Democrats, including Hillary Clinton, vote to go into Iraq?

        • Ralph

          …and they were GONE after that. There was a no-fly zone which essentially tied saddams’ hands. Overthrowing Saddam was the dumbest strtaegic move for USA in the last 100 years.

      • ONOBONGO

        And exactly HOW has obama fixed anything?

        • Vanbren5

          Do they actually show the decreasing unemployment rate and record DOW on Fox News.., your living a cult if you know this stuff.

          • Carolyn Palacios

            4.2 percent unemployment under Bush, sorry kiddo, I don’t watch tv, I read. You should try it.

          • perkalerk

            it was 4.3 when it came in and 7.2 when he left. Sorry Carolyn, but that’s bad, not good.

          • Carolyn Palacios

            Sure kiddo, it was 4.3 in 2007…when he came into office in liberal crazy land.

          • disqus_VxeNnTIVwA

            he came into office in 2007? Carolyn, I think you need a nap.

          • Vanbren5

            Take your meds Carolyn!!

          • disqus_VxeNnTIVwA

            I guess everybody under 70 gets called kiddo. Bush’s job creation was the worst of any president in the 20th century. If you read anything related to the topic you are talking about, like the bureau of labor statistics reports, that would certainly make your (unsourced) points more sustainable in an argument. Read the BLS stats. They’re definitive on this point.

          • Bunky

            I have.
            2000 last year clinton 136 million employed
            2008 last year bush 145 million employed
            2013 fifth year obama 143 million employed.
            Source is BLS.

          • Jim Aaron

            The Labor Utilization Rate is 62.8 %, matching the Low of 1978, this means many people are NOT WORKING. The Stock Market is up because all the 401K Money going into Stocks, the Bond Market is Dead, go to a bank and see what THEY will pay you on a CD, less than 2%

          • irwincur

            Pretty simple to decrease the unemployment rate when you change the math behind it. There are a record number of people NOT working, the actual rate is BS. If done with traditional measures, it would be 12.1%.
            As for the DOW, that is what QE and $40 billion per month going to the banks will do. This is nothing more than a paper market fueled by printed money.

          • Howienica

            85 billion a month.

          • disqus_VxeNnTIVwA

            early onset alzheimers patients always argue sooooo effectively.

          • Vito Giotta

            This guy is a typical socialist, when presented with the factual truth they will attack the person or party with personal demeaning remarks to change the conversation.

            This is so sad because we give them this important information so they can understand that they have been lied to and they continue to keep the blinders on because they can not accept the fact that they got it wrong.

            Unfortunately if the young people understood history they would understand that the USSR started sending communist to America with a long term goal of turning America into a communist state by putting these people in teaching positions in our universities in the 1950s. All of today’s young socialist were indoctrinated by the students of these communist university professors.

          • Vanbren5

            And there you sit on your Medicare financed hemorrhoid scars, and those Medicare financed dentures in your mouth complaining about socialists. You’re hilarious!!!

          • irwincur

            And that is exactly how you lose an argument. Good job Ace.

          • Vanbren5

            It’s not Obama’s fault that your life sucks. Your life sucks because you have made terrible choices. You didn’t update your skills for a changing economy, you didn’t invest appropriately, you had too many unwanted kids, you got too fat and nobody wants to have sex with you. Everything is better now. Pres. Obama was handed the worst recession since the Depression. The Dow is at record levels and the Obama economy is Gaining jobs unlike the Dumbya economy when his policies and trillion dollar wars caused the economy to crash. You will always be a miserable person because you won’t step up and take responsibility for your life. You’re always blaming others. But you’re a conservative so you have a propensity to be in cults, believe in fairy tales and conspiracy theories. There is very little hope for you. You’re always going to be miserable because you’re in a cult of delusions and fantasies.

      • Bunky

        Economic growth was better under W.
        Employment was better under W.
        What has obama fixed?
        Just name it and we can look it up.
        I’m sure many people would applaud all of obama’s verifiable fixes.
        But, right now those fixes number zero.

        • Vanbren5

          Take a look at the unemployment rate and the Dow!! Everything is better now than it was under the learning disabled Dumya

          • mb5599

            the kenyan is clueless

          • disqus_VxeNnTIVwA

            the poster is racist

          • lookout1

            49 out of 50 months more people have quit looking for work than got jobs under obama..

          • Mojojojo

            I can think of several off the top of my head that show you’re wrong. Source?

          • lookout1

            Us Department of labor…
            How about this .. you pick year and month and ill tell you how many people dropped out of labor force

            http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/03/june-jobs-report-unemployment-rate_n_5551582.html

            And the FED says the collapse in the 24-55yr range
            NOT the 55+ range

            http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU01300060

            https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140627165137-12107355-the-long-term-unemployment-crisis-is-as-bad-as-ever

            In short obamanomics is a disaster..

          • Mojojojo

            The labor force has increased on several of the last 50 job reports: http://www.whatamimissinghere.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Labor-Force-Participation-Rate-thru-Summer-2012-Graph.jpg

            How can more people quit looking for work than get jobs in those months if no net people quit looking for work? Please, I’m dying to hear this whopper.

            Conservatives are such pathological liars, nobody trusts anything you people say anymore. Even assuming the opposite of what you say is more reliable lol.

          • lookout1

            Its is funny your argument is NO it not 49 out of 50 .. its more like 45 out of 50!!! (that one large spike is the US Census)

            Ok you win… your chart is all you need to show how bad obamanomics is …he is in jimmy carter range

          • Bunky

            Do you even know what your chart is showing?

          • Andres Bacalao

            His name is Barack, and he is not disabled- just slightly impaired upstairs. Also, he is still the president- although it is hard to see any real evidence that he is still mentally there. So, we will have to wait until 2017 for any improvement.

          • brock2118

            W’s unemployment rate was way lower than Obama’s until the near end when the recession hit. If you want to compare apples to apples you will have to wait until 2017. Ditto Dow.

          • cas47

            Sorry, no. Unemployment was lower under W until Dem policies and spending caused the crash. The Dow us right back where it was, so the rich have gotten richer.

          • Bunky

            Average unemployment rate under Bush was 5.2 %.
            The LOWEST unemployment rate under oewbama is 6.3 %. That’s the headline number, the fudged number.
            So there’s that.
            Wasn’t it owebama that said his administration doesn’t pay attention to the stock market.
            Yeah, they did say it, when it was going down, down, down.
            Now they’re somehow responsible for it going up?
            Your tongue is turning black from licking obamas a$&.

        • Bergey66

          W. took us from growth to (deep) recession, from low unemployment to quickly rising, from surplus to growing deficits, from peace to two wars, one of them unnecessary and the other dragged on far too long. Obama has reversed the momentum and improved our situation on all those fronts.

          Economic growth and employment might have been “better” under W on average, but only because he inherited peace and prosperity and about the best thing you can say about him is that it took him two full terms to screw it all up.

          • brock2118

            How exactly is the situation in Iraq “improved” at the present time?

          • Bergey66

            Our troops are (mostly) out of harm’s way. Aside from that, it’s one of many f*cked up places in the world that we don’t need to squander our resources policing.

          • brock2118

            Always be careful what you wish for. Iraq was not in an uproar in 2009. Now the head of ISIS says he will “see us soon in New York!”

            I guess since I don’t live in New Yawk I really shouldnt care.

          • cas47

            W inherited a recession. Obama has presided over the worst recovery from a recession in our history.

          • Bergey66

            W inherited an economy sliding toward a very mild recession (not sure it had started yet) and left us with a much deeper one. Not sure how his “recovery” is better than Obama’s. Meantime the last 2 1/2 years of Obama’s story has yet to be written. The job growth of recent months could portend that he will have taken us from the lowest point in the economy in 80 years to a full recovery. Yes it’s taken awhile but that’s what happens when you shed several million jobs in less than a year.

          • disqus_VxeNnTIVwA

            Numbers, source? The geriatrics at your coffee shop may nod in approval but in a public forum we expect some research. If you don’t have any facts don’t speak as if you do.

          • windycitygurl

            Obama “inherited” – a slower economy — and made it worse. What’s your point again?
            Dot com bubble burst, 911, fell on Bush admin…despite that, GDP for W’s years shows a recovery. (Federal Reserve page-GDP) Near end of his term financial institutions began to fall due to toxic assets. Repeal of the Glass Steagall bill- signed by Clinton broke down the firewall between commercial and investment banks.

            The housing bubble was a much longer process beginning in the Jimmy Carter admin, but was re-invigorated by the Clinton admin. In 97, leftwing activists staged Bank sit ins in Chicago, and their leader Madeline Talcott bragged about bringing banks “kicking and screaming” into sub-prime lending. Banks were graded on how many minorities were gained loans for mortgages.

            Sub-prime lending fed the into toxic assets…hedge fund bundled derivatives– financial speculators got into the ring. Some knew how to bet. An article from a foreign news outlet [2009] had Soros boasting he made a couple of billion dollars betting against the US economy.

            Bush was far from a great president, but if you read economic text books, they do not blame the crash on Bush. But if you’re able to figure out what happened using leftist talking points, more power to you.

            Conservatives should at least be aware of the history of sub prime lending. tech growth in 90s (clinton admin) that fueled economy, and Glass-Steagall repeal.

            .

          • Bergey66

            How exactly has Obama made the economy worse than when he took office? Cite me a stat or two that show 2014 is worse than 2009. Do that and I will take you seriously enough to respond to the rest of your post, which contains at least one good point about the repeal of Glass-Steagall being a bonehead bipartisan move.

          • Bunky

            Employed Americans under Bush 146 million.
            Employed Americans at the end of 2013, 144 million.
            That’s obamas growing economy.
            By the way there are a lot more people in the USA thanks to obama lovin him some illegals.
            Bureau of Labor Statistics. Check it out boot licker.

          • Bunky

            You say deficit and Bush but not owebama?
            From two wars to foreign policy disaster?
            Bush inherited Clinton recession of 2000, 2001, and the Clinton 9/11.

            Maybe you were still in grammar school then and just don’t know.

          • Vanbren5

            It’s not Obama’s fault that your life sucks. Your life sucks because you have a habit of making bad decisions. You voted republican and that brought about Dumbya ‘s economic crash, housing market crash,and auto manufacturing crash. The DOW lost 70% under Dumbya. You didn’t invest wisely for a changing economy, you had too many unwanted kids, you don’t live a healthy life style and you found yourself fat and ugly and nobody wants to have sex with you. You made your choices that affect your life-not Obama- and you won’t step up and accept responsibility. You want to blame others. You’re a conservative so you have a propensity to be in cults, believe in fairy tales and conspiracy theories. Cult members seldom ever snap out of it so you’ll live your life blaming others and hoping the fantasies and fairy tales come true, the rest of us who live in reality will reap the benefits of investing wisely in a changing economy while you’re sitting on your Medicare financed hemorrhoids blaming others

          • Bunky

            Vanny boy used a lot of verbage to say “I love owebama and will continue to lick his a$& until my tongue is brown”.
            Enjoy your obot cult vanny dummy.

        • Ralph

          Bush had a surplus when he came into office. there also was PEACE. He squandered the surplus by starting two wars and giving his wealthy friends tax breaks. We were losing 500,000 jobs a month when he walked away.

          • Carolyn Palacios

            Yeah, we were totally at peace on 9/11….until we were attacked by a group that Clinton could easily have stopped if he had taken terrorism seriously.

          • Mojojojo

            that Bush* could easily have stopped if he had taken terrorism seriously.

          • altster76

            You’re a slow learner Ralph. If you read enough, you’ll find your errors. Wise up.

        • disqus_VxeNnTIVwA

          Numbers? Source? Otherwise can it.

        • Robert Morris

          Bunky
          I don’t know what planet you’re living on, but the reality is we are still digging out of a huge recession the incompedence of W left us in. You want verifiable? Just as W left office our financials were colapsing. The Dow Industrial tanked to 680. Presently it’s 1700+. With W the economy was bleeding 680,000 jobs a month. When you look at job creation charts, there has been steady growth under Obama. Your entire post is total nonsense.

        • Bill Pranty

          “Economic growth” under Dubya? Are you serious? I guess you’re conveniently overlooking the millions of jobs lost under the Dubya Recession, which would have been a full-blown Second Great Depression had not Obama been elected.

          • Bunky

            Six years and seven trillion dollars under obama and we’re still in the “great recession”.
            He’s saved us.
            Sarc off.

          • Bunky

            Get the actual data before you open the maw and look foolish.

      • Thought Criminal

        Obama couldn’t fix a sandwich….

        • windycitygurl

          I don’t know… he might manage a sandwich.

        • Bill Pranty

          Tell that to three Somail pirates, Osama bin Laden, Anwar Al-Awkaki, and … oh, you can;t ask them; they;re dead because the President sent SEALs after them. And you’re strangely overlooking the President ending Dubya’s two wars, not starting any new wars, rescuing the US auto industry (and saving one million jobs in the process), etc., etc., etc.

          • Dissentispatriotic

            Then, let’s elect the Seals because they did the work. Obama delegated this job to others to be carried out.

          • LAPhil

            Whoopdie frickin’ doo. Obama killed some terrorists (not that he did personally). That hardly makes up for all the damage he’s done to the country. And he keeps getting worse by the day.

      • Bob Marley

        In 2010, Biden was saying that Iraq, started by huge majorities of both parties, was one of Obama’s greatest achievements. That doesn’t sound like it was ‘unwinnable’. Hopefully, Obama will fix his mistake like Bush fixed his via the Surge. Someone needs to hand him a newspaper outlining the situation in Iraq first though.

      • Republiker1

        Fixed? Try again.

      • Bobloblaw67

        The Afghan war, you idiota was started on 9-11-01 when Al Qaeda supported by the Taliban attacked the WTC and Pentagon killing 3,000 Americans. The War Resolution passed congress with only one dissenting vote. The UN and NATO both gave the Afghan War their support. You are a blithering idiota libtard

      • Bob Simpson

        Obama couldn’t pour piss out of a boot if we wrote the instructions on the botom!

      • Beachguy53

        He didn’t fix anything, someone else did! lol

    • Jerome Barry

      Don’t be so pessimistic. Just the SCOTUS cases delivered so far have clipped O’s ambitions and others yet to come could both undo the Affordable Care Act and stain him as the moral heir of Nixon.

    • stevenfranklin54

      We can count on the Republicans to carry the xenophobic, homophobic, anti-feminist, bible thumping, science denying, school defunding, gun-clutching, wealth worshipping, war loving vote.

      • Carolyn Palacios

        Yeah, because the Democrats didn’t elect a former grand wizard of the klan in 2010…oh, that’s right, you did! Well, it’s not like you elected a guy like Filner who sexually harassed his press secretary by telling her not to wear underwear to work…oh, that’s right, you did! Well, it’s not like they just did a study showing the plurality of Democrats didn’t know the Earth revolves around the sun…oh, that’s right, they did! I think you are projecting kiddo.

        • stevenfranklin54

          Both parties have the issues The Democratic Governor of NY who resigned after a prostitution scandal. The Republican Senator from Louisiana who didn’t.

          Which party opposes immigration reform? Which party opposes marriage equality/the abolition of DADT? Which party opposes abortion, opposes Lilly Ledbetter, and supported the Hobby Lobby holding? Which party rejects evolution because it’s not in the Bible and calls global warming a myth? Which party backs school vouchers which would defund schools. Which party opposes background checks for potential gun buyers? Which party thinks cutting taxes for the top 1% will create more jobs? Which party dragged us into Iraq, Afghanistan, and wants us to bomb Libya?
          Sorry, kiddo but I’ve just described current Republican dogma.

    • Disgruntled2012

      If the don’t kill the idea of amnesty, then it doesn’t matter if they take the senate or not.

      Personally, I think they lost the senate with their vile tactics in MS.

  • http://www.guardiancommunications.com/ Mark McNeil

    Naw, it’s going to be a bloodbath. Blue will no longer be a primary color.

  • Poor62

    And in Michigan, the best the leftists can do is to mount a sexist campaign against the female Republican candidate Terri Land. Between Harry Reid’s Senate Majority PAC and the SEIU attacks you would think that Land was a neanderthal. Theirs is the real war on women, but it’s OK for the left to lie and smear a successful female. But the leftists’ candidate Peters repeated the Obamacare lie

    that you can keep your doctor and health plan numerous times, and became a wealthy multimillionaire working for Wall Street’s Merrill-Lynch, PaineWebber, and UBS. Making millions off Wall Street is fine as long as you are a democrat.

    • JStizzy

      I’m sorry, I don’t see how attacking a female politician running for office in exactly the same fashion as a party would attack a male politician in the same position is “sexist” or constitutes a “war on women.” Or is it your contention that Democrats only lie about female Republican candidates? If not, somebody is going to have to explain to me the sexism there, because I thought sexism constituted different treatment because of ones gender without any alternative reason? There is no need to adopt the left’s tropes here.

      Alternatively, if you are arguing that any criticism about a female candidate for U.S. Senate is sexist, then I would hope that you are consistent and will immediately call for the cessation of all attacks against Democratic Senators Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan, Democratic Senate nominees Michelle Nunn, Alison Lundergan Grimes, and Shenna Bellows; as well as against Republican Senator Susan Collins, and Republican Senate nominees Shelley Moore Capito, Joni Ernst, and Monica Wehby, along with Terri Lynn Land.

    • Vanbren5

      We’ll she brought it on herself. She’s dumb as a box of rocks like Palin. She opens her mouth and says weird stupid things at the wrong time and she openly opposes birth control in insurance plans. Why would any woman want to vote for her?

      • Redyooper

        Second time you’ve said that. Still no citations.

  • Rick Roberts

    It’s going to be close and fascinating. It could very well come to 50/50, requiring the Vice President to plant himself in the Senate for the next two years. I’ll take it. Then in 2016, the Rs will have a map much tougher than the one Ds are facing this time around.

  • Bomber7090

    The premise of the article right at the beginning is incorrect – the Republicans need five net pickups because one of the two Independents now with the Democrats will almost certainly switch caucuses to prevent two majority parties in the Senate. Yes, with a tie, the presiding officer who is a Democrat can break ties but only on legislation – not on the organization of the Senate. Angus King is smart enough not to want that.

  • ONOBONGO

    6….6……6…..6…..6….6

  • SamSmart

    About Landrieu’s “support in the business community” – it is small, and limited to people who are either the beneficiaries of the government contracts that she has doled out over the years, or those who are stupid enough to believe that she is good for the oil and gas industry.
    .
    Other than that, her support is from African Americans, labor unions, those on the government dole, and the corrupt Democrat political machine. And that’s the same forty-something percent that is always there.

  • Joseph Hall

    We’ve heard all this talk before. Harry Reid will be the Senate majority leader come 2015….

  • Jesse Cooday

    Alaska’s Summer Salmon Season is here

    Healthy Recipes | Wild Alaskan Salmon
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCAdIglXX3g

    Commercial Fishermen for Bristol Bay thank Senator Mark Begich
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDZenTpAAkE

    Senator Mark Begich in 2014!

  • bigfoot9p6

    It seems that the more important point is that, in terms of long-term policy goals, the 2014 election is meaningless. The GOP will lose the senate in 2016 regardless of how many seats they hold after 2014. It’s just math.

    • Bobloblaw67

      agreed

  • ncgray

    This article is a pipe dream for the Democrat party. The border issue is real, and it will drag on the Dems. Have you seen the intercity protest from black voters asking why would do so much for non-citizens when we have failed areas in every major American city? Oops there goes your Democrat voter enthusiasm…

    There is a bigger goal by the powers in the Democrat party with the rise in the numbers of immigrants. I do believe that they see each of these new immigrants as future voters. And don’t be surprised when they contrive a strategy to plant these poor souls in red states.

    Look for Republican control of the senate in 2015, however, don’t look for any rescue from the disaster that President Obama is to our economy and our country. The Republican party is only marginally better than the Democrats.

  • Republiker1

    The Democrats are going to have to rally the already dead vote and get every other democrat to vote several times to win it in November. I feel confident the democrats can do it.

    • cresciteundo

      “The grave’s a fine and quiet place, but none (except Democrats) do there embrace”… apologies to Andrew Marvel.

  • Redyooper

    Terry Lynn Land “unproven”? She served two terms as secy of state for cryin out loud! Plus she was very popular for her reforms to the DMV. Peters lost his only bid for statewide office (attorney general) in 2002 when MI was a much bluer state. Big reason was his support for gun control, not popular on either side of the aisle in a big hunting state. In addition, the GOP now controls the state legislature (26-12 in the senate) and Snyder is favored to be re-elected governor. Right to work is now also law in the birthplace of the UAW. So tell me again how we will elect a liberal Detroit congressman to the U S senate?

    • Vanbren5

      But she’s Sarah Palin stupid, says weird thing at the wrong time ant not quick on her feet

      • Redyooper

        Citations please.

        • Redyooper

          Also, wait til Peters is attacked on gun control. It will happen in the final weeks before the election. & it will finish him off, same as in. 2002.

  • Vanbren5

    Republicans will NOT win the senate and they may lose Numbers in the House… republicans are FAR more unpopular than Obama and Democrats are excited to line up and vote!!!

    • Bobloblaw67

      The Dem base is NOT excited to vote, nice try. GOP isnt going to lose House seats. Also what matters isnt national popularity numbers, but numbers in those competitive districts. Obama is much much less popular there than in national numbers. That being said I do think the GOP wont win the Senate due to the TP/GOPe civil war. My best guess is the GOP easily wins WV, SD, MT. Beyond that AR, LA and AK in that order. IA is possible. Where the TP/GOPe war is hurting most is in NC, where conservatives are upset that Tillis won and arent supporting him.

      • Vanbren5

        Obama is far more popular than all republicans, the republican part has never been more unpopular, the republicans are turning off all non- white demographics and all non-Christians… Republicans just voted out their only Jew!,, so now EVEN JEWS are not welcome in the Republican Party

        • cresciteundo

          Popular? You ARE funny….

    • Republiker1

      Try again.

    • cresciteundo

      Where is that poorly translated “re-set” button again? (lol)

  • BartDePalma

    More whistling past the graveyard.

    When you poll likely voters in the swing states, the numbers suggest a 2010 level wipeout and up to 12 seats lost.

    These states are by and large Tea Party country.

    https://thecitizenpamphleteer.wordpress.com/2014/06/21/its-looking-like-tea-time-again/

  • dj

    Repubs will get the senate onmy have advantage by 1 or 2 votes and we still won’t get anything done

    • Bobloblaw67

      good. Govt hasnot done anything good since the Welfare Reform in 1996

    • cleo48

      Frankly, I’ve always felt that NO legislation is better than BAD legislation. Obamacare is your proof.

  • Demosthenes

    Three points:

    1. Polls this early are staristically meaningless. If you don’t believe me, ask “President” McCain or “Vice President” Palin. The polls start being interesting in mid-September.

    2. A Senate GOP majority, while bad news for those who believe the job of Congress is to — you know, legislate — is meaningless for advancing the GOP agenda. Pres. Obama will veto most of the most extreme stuff, and the GOP will lack super majorities to override. The only benefit for the GOP is with federal judicial appointments, so there will undoubtedly be many vacancies by January, 2017.

    3. A GOP majority in both houses will allow them to “let their freak fly”. I suspect this deeply unpopular agenda will not assist the GOP come November, 2016, when a broader electorate will vote. (I confer this point is highly speculative).

    • aegis

      POLL CHECK
      Real Clear Politics Averages
      Obama Job Approval: Approve – 41.3 percent//Disapprove – 54 percent
      Direction of Country: Right Direction – 26 percent//Wrong Track – 63.5 percent
      Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats – 41.4 percent// Republicans 40.2 percent

      No
      We don’t believe you.

      • Demosthenes

        Your utterly nonresponsive reply has no relevance to my points, other than illustrating your ability to cut and paste.

      • discordian

        What I see is that in spite of Obama’s unpopularity, the Democrats are still leading in the generic ballot. That says something about Republicans doesn’t it?

        • Redyooper

          Yes. It says “meaningless”

    • Redyooper

      Ah, gridlock–a beautiful thing! I’m perfectly okay with no legislation as opposed to BAD legislation.

      • Demosthenes

        The Tea Party mantra distilled to its very essence:

        Who needs a functioning government, unless it does exactly what we want it to do in all regards? Compromise? Skip it.

        • Layla

          Yes, and we all know that Obama is the King of Compromise, as are the new Socialist Democrats.

          • Demosthenes

            I’m not familiar with an entity called “the new Socialist Democrats”. I know there is a party that calls itself the “Republicans” and another that is named they”Democrats”.

            Regarding Pres. Obama not compromising, I agree that he has finally given up hope that the GOP will compromise on anything of substance. He learned his lesson, I believe, when the GOP shut down the government last year and almost caused a default on our obligations.

  • Jim Sedberry

    If the Republicans don’t take the Senate, we will take the country, a revolution will be with out a shadow of a doubt forthcoming! America, and Americans can no longer allow themselves to be tossed about by the myopic decisions of the liberals, those that are hell bent on destruction of the remains of this country.
    There remains only this solution, to chose otherwise is submission to stupidity, and, arrogance and impending doom from these idiots!!!

    • Demosthenes

      Indeed. Part and parcel of our system of government is choosing sedition if one loses at the ballot box.

      If you don’t believe me, ask CSA “President” Jefferson Davis. He’s was a real patriot, I hear.

      • DrTox06

        “When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.”

        -Somebody famous

        • Demosthenes

          Yes, and that was to create a country of some note, I hear.

          Should I quote the CSA “constitution” now? I’m sure those traitors used lots of pretty words.

          • DrTox06

            Jefferson’s point was that nothing last forever… not even the whole 50 stars thing.

          • Demosthenes

            If you are no longer happy being an American, then leave.

            Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

          • DrTox06

            I’m perfectly happy being American. I hate liberalism because it is diametrically opposed to all things American.

          • Demosthenes

            Then you hate our system of government because you disagree with the results of elections.

            Six of one; half dozen of another.

          • DrTox06

            You should get your chromosomes counted, seriously.

          • Demosthenes

            Sure. Whatever.

    • discordian

      LMAO. Right, you’re going to stage a revolution if you lose the midterm elections? You guys are hilarious.

  • cleo48

    Gee, it’s nice to know the Democrats are still in play. Obama’s border invasion certainly is. If some of these Dem Senators survive the holocaust, perhaps they’ll be around in future years during the prosecution of Federal agency heads who are committing crimes at the direction of their president.

  • altster76

    It’s really much more simple than all that… for an exact count of the Democrats that will survive the 2014 election, just count those that cast a vote against Obamacare in 2010. Geez Stuart, I guess you thought everyone had forgotten? You can be assured that all the horror inflicted on the American people and especially the middle class by the Democrats in the last 6 years will be sprayed all over the airwaves in the fall. No one has forgotten.

  • JadedFan

    Let me help you do your job. Because you seem to be really bad at it.

    Right now the polls are mostly looking at REGISTERED voters, not likely voters.

    Take Hagan for example who you mention as supposedly doing better than expected in NC.

    The latest RCP polls have her supposedly up 3 in the race, HOWEVER, let’s look at those polls:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html

    First of all they are almost a month old. Second, the two most recent having Hagan up by 4 are of REGISTERED voters.

    We all know that the actual voters will be whiter, older, and more republican than in an election year. Always is the case with midterms.

    So Hagan is not up 4, but likely down closer to 10. She also is under 50%, 47% in one poll, 42% in another, and again that is among registered, not likely voters. She probably is in the low 30′s among likely voters.

    And yet you have it as a toss up.

    I can go through the other races similarly, but the long and short of it is that the republicans are poised to snare a dozen seats and you morons have no clue because you do not understand polling, supposedly your job.

    • Demosthenes

      Ah yes, you’re “unskewing” polls.

      Is it you, Karl Rove?

      • Bodica Slayer of Drones

        Obama is a liability, Rove or no Rove.

        • Demosthenes

          If the election were held today, you are correct.

        • Layla

          And so is current GOP leadership and strategy, both Houses of Congress. The emperor has no clothes and until you realize that, you will continue to lose.

      • JadedFan

        Do you really not get the difference between registered and likely voters?

        Everyone who voted in 2012 is registered. Anyone with a brain and an attention span to history knows that not every registered voter votes in midterm elections, and that democrat groups have by far the biggest fall off.

        So polling registered voters and using those polls as predictors of results in 2014 instead of polling likely voters is going to give wrong results.

        I am growing sad at our education system, that simple concepts are beyond most. Especially liberals.

        • Demosthenes

          There is a difference, but at such an early stage it is statistically impossible to correlate its relevance to an election so far off. Moreover, in some years (2012, for example) such a bifurcated look proved highly inaccurate. (That’s why I tweaked you, since Mr. Rove relied too much on likely versus registered voters, and was highly inaccurate.)

          • JadedFan

            2012 was a presidential election.

            ‘…had Democrats won the same levels of support among each age group in 2010, Republicans would still have won a clear plurality of all votes cast that year. How? Voters under the age of 30 were 19 percent of all voters in 2012, but just 12 percent of all voters in 2010. Likewise, voters 65 and up were 17 percent of all voters in 2012, but 21 percent of all voters in 2012. Herein lies the biggest danger for Democratic candidates in 2014.

            Midterm elections have always drawn older voters, and usually drawn white voters, to the polls in disproportionate numbers. Older voters are less transient, have grown deeper roots in their local communities, and pay much more attention to non-presidential elections than their younger counterparts. In the 1980s, that didn’t hold partisan consequences. Today, that amounts to a built-in midterm turnout advantage for Republicans.

            ….

            For most Democratic House candidates, a good rule of thumb might be to subtract two to three points from the 2012 Democratic percentage in the district to come up with a reasonable approximation of a “starting point” for a 2014 race. That means most Democrats probably need to perform about five percent better among Independent voters in 2014 just to stay afloat at 2012 levels, and would need an even higher share of Independents to pick up seats. Wow.’

            http://cookpolitical.com/story/5776

          • Demosthenes

            Perhaps, but sometimes the numbers are radically different. See, e.g., 1998 and 2006 midterms, when Democratic base voters were energized and turned out on great numbers. Of course, no one can predict turnout in November.

            My point is simple: it’s too early to tell. Any point to the contrary, even one as obviously thoughtful as yours, is a guesstimate.

          • Layla

            You REFUSE to admit that the GOP have abandoned their base and are at war with them. This is why you have been losing elections SINCE 2008. People PREFER TO STAY HOME.

            “Preferring to stay home” loses EVERY TIME. You need to stand for something, and you don’t.

            You need to uphold the Constitution, and you don’t.

          • Demosthenes

            I respectfully disagree on one point. First, the GOP has been losing elections since 2006. The exception, of course, was the GOP’s huge 2010 victory. The GOP is hoping for a repeat of 2010, while the Democrats want it to be like 1998 or 2006.

            At this point, who knows what will happen in November?

    • DC_NH

      People who think Republicans are going to get “a dozen” seats remind me of people who thought Romney was going to win in a “landslide” in 2012. Wishful thinking. I’m not saying Democrats have it made but keeping the senate is more or less a 50/50 proposition at this point. If Republicans take it, it will be a close call, maybe by 1 or 2 total.

    • Layla

      In order to win, the Republicans are FIRST going to have to demonstrate they are willing to uphold their Constitutional Oaths of Office. Being “the better alternative” is not a sufficient election strategy and has been losing them elections since 2010.

      Not good enough, GOP. Every American knows we have a dictator in the White House. What are you going to do about that?

  • Jim Aaron

    Michigan DEMOCRAT REP. GARY PETERS is running for the U.S. Senate, why did he hire Ex-Detroit Deputy Mayor KANDIA MILTON to work in his Federal Office, drawing a Federal paycheck, while still on FEDERAL PAROLE for BRIBERY??? He went to Federal Prison for taking a BRIBE involving the sale of Camp Brighton, a Detroit-owned Property, should be against the law to Hire Crooks that were CONVICTED of being a CROOK in their Public Job, but that’s how DEMOCRATS ROLL. The mayor of Detroit, Mike Duggan Hired CHARLES BECKHAM to his Cabinet, in Charge of the “Neighborhoods”, Beckham went to FEDERAL PRISON FOR BRIBERY during the Vista Sludge Hauling Scandal, I wonder if he will be in charge of the $500 MILLION coming to Detroit for the elimination of Blight.

    • Redyooper

      Wow! Didn’t know about that one! I redt my case.

  • ZenderTranscender

    The winds will change many times between now and November, but the Democratic candidates have little of that wind behind them at this point in time.

    Not only is Obama unpopular – he is becoming despised by even people who once led the band for him. Someone who is so consistently inept is usually not popular. Obama is just political – not even well-intentioned in his remarks and actions. Even this fall he is likely to be of no help to Dem. candidates. Republicans as a party aren’t popular, either, but some of the battleground states are purple or decidedly red. Georgia may be an exception re: its Senate race with Democrat Michelle Nunn gaining popularity.

  • Joe Truth

    Please GOP take the Senate and politically cripple the half-Kenyan until he leaves office.

    • Layla

      NOT UNLESS THEY INTEND TO KEEP THEIR PROMISES. And right now, the Chamber and the illegals at the border are winning.

      NOT ACCEPTABLE TO THE VOTERS. Keep it up, please. This country needs a new Congress.

  • discordian

    One thing you can say for sure, if Republicans don’t take the Senate this year it will be a serious blow to their party. In 2016, it is Republicans who will be defending most of the open Senate seats, so this year will be their high water mark.

    • Layla

      The GOP have some decisions to make….stay on course, battling your own party, and you lose.

  • mijoh

    Keep an eye on Georgia. Heavy turnout could give it to the dems.

  • Bob Simpson

    Who is Udall going to support this time? His wallet or Coloradans?

    • Mikey

      Udall will support Wall st, and the big banks.

    • Layla

      Unfortunately, the wallet usually wins.

  • fodderphil

    Stu Rothenberg over the years has been fairly astute, although from my conservative standpoint, (to use his terminology) he Leans Left. Ergo, I always add 2-3 polling points to R candidates when I see his summations. So, here in Colo., Cory Gardner, despite the shameful negative attack ads on local TV unfairly and incorrectly trying to paint him as neanderthal extremist, likely has at least a margin-of-error lead. That will increase as more and more people meet him and see what a genuinely nice, bright guy he is, and everyone gets wiser to the insincere, ineffective Frick (Udall, to Michael Bennet’s Frack). For these reasons, expect slimy, ultra-left special interest groups to sling mud against Gardner’s wall, hoping something will stick.

  • valwayne

    Every single Democrat I the Senate LIED to our entire nation and the people in their states, and then voted to put the nightmare of Obamacare over the top. The Democrats in the Senate also told us along with Obama that our border was more secure than every. They LIED again. A vote for any of these Democratic Senators is the same a vote for Obama and Nancy Pelosi. They pretend to be different in their home states, but then they go to DC and take their orders form Obama, Reid, and Pelosi. If you love Obama and Nancy Pelosi than vote for a Democrat in your state. If you don’t and you are tired of these Senators LYING to you and voting with Nancy Pelosi when they think you aren’t paying attention then kick every lying, job killing Democrat to the gutter in November, and start healing our nation.

  • hausman69

    I remember a war caused by the Marxists, I mean Democrats by JFK. We really lost that one thanks to the Marxists, I mean Democrats.

    • Victoria Madeley

      You don’t even understand what the word “marxist” means Shortbus!!

  • Layla

    Want to win this election? Shut down the border, cancel ALL foreign aid to Mexico, Latin America and impeach Barack Obama. The Senate will belong to whomever does this.

    • Victoria Madeley

      Fortunately, most Americans are not xenophobic haters like you.

      • Gatorlaw92

        Right, because enforcing the law and our borders is xenophobic, right? LOL Only a liberal dipshit could believe that.

        • dj

          Hey don’t for get the other dip sh:ts Reagan ghwb Clinton Gwb and now Obama the 18 million people didn’t appear over night what’s an extra 70ooo going to matter

  • EarlVanDorn

    You need to take a look at Mississippi, where incumbent Republican Thad Cochran is caught up in a election fraud and race-baiting scandal. Most McDaniel supporters will not vote for Cochran, preferring an honest Democrat to a crooked, unethical Republican. Current polling shows Cochran’s main support is from blacks and Democrats, but the Democrat in the race is a former Congressman, and the blacks and Democrats will return to him in the fall.

    • Raphael Semmes

      That was a huge blunder by the DC GOP establishment. I hear of conservatives in my home state of North Carolina who have decided not to vote for RINO Senate nominee Thom Tillis in payback to the establishment for their frauds in Mississippi in the primary. The fact that it has now been discovered that the RNC and McConnell helped finance those frauds will likely make conservative disenchantment with establishment candidates grow. In a critical year when party unity is so critical why did the morons of the DC establishment so stupidly blow it up?

    • Layla

      Thank you, Karl Rove. It’s all about keeping those seats, at all cost, isn’t it?

  • JRD_1

    There is no need to give the senate to the Republicans who have the same agenda as Harry Reid.

    Confirmed: the attack ads in Mississippi run by “All Citizens for Mississippi” were funded by Senate Republicans, including Senators Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn, Rob Portman, Bob Corker, and Roy Blunt. It appears our Senate Republican leaders are willing to risk losing a Senate majority so long as they can get their own re-elected. Yes folks, it is true.

    The advertisements attacked conservative Republicans and tea party activists as racists.

    According to documents filed with the Federal Elections Commission,
    All Citizens for Mississippi received funding from a Haley Barbour
    backed group called Mississippi Conservatives.

    Tokyo Rove’s American Crossroads also funded the race bait ads.

    Sally Bradshaw (Jeb Bush’s Tokyo Rove) and Henry Barbour (Haley Barbour’s nephew) worked on the autopsy of the 2012 GOP loss.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold!

    http://www.redstate.com/2014/07/15/confirmed-senate-republican-leaders-paid-for-attacks-against-conservatives/

    http://spectator.org/blog/59974/rove-american-crossroads-mississippi-controversy

  • Theodore B Nolan

    Thanks to ObamaKare, NSA, murdered Americans, IRS, and the invasion of illegal aliens, the majority of Americans now know libs are their enemy and will vote accordingly.

    • Victoria Madeley

      Only if they’re as uninformed, gullible and naive as you. Good little Foxbot.

      • Gatorlaw92

        Right, because only fox viewers think that the dems are destroying the country. LOL!! Obama below fifty percent approval are all fox viewers? LOL You are out of touch, just like Obama and his dem stooges.

        • Victoria Madeley

          In what alternate reality is 52 straight weeks of private sector job growth – the longest streak in history, reducing the deficit at the fastest pace since WW2, ending the wars and helping millions more Americans have access to affordable healthcare “destroying” the country?

          Yes, only ignorant Foxbots think that!!

      • Layla

        The name calling does wonders at election time. Keep it up.

    • dj

      2014 GOP wins but won’t matter the won’t be able to get sh:) done because dems will be returning the f:)ken favor for being a bunch of uncompromising f :)ks

      • Layla

        At least we know our borders will be secure.

  • Theodore B Nolan

    Have you boycotted a lib owned business today? Why not? Have you identified lib owned business and warned your friends, family, and associates the businesses are owned by the enemy?

    • Layla

      I want the country back where we have no “enemies”. That began with the Clintons and has been growing stronger ever since.

      How about we vote in a Congress that puts AMERICAN JOBS FIRST and limits H1-B visas? If you want foreign workers, take your business OFFSHORE. American families cannot pay their bills because of the greed of this Congress, this administration, and the US Chamber of Commerce.

  • YONATAN C

    The republican and democrats have both failed the more than three million unemployed families who are still without an unemployment extension since late last December. While both political parties walked away from the issue, these millions of families were left in financial ruin and deep poverty. Over the past seven months these families have lost much of what they have ever worked for. while billions of dollars were approved for the Ukraine, and more to support illegals at the border, nothing was given to these families so desperately in need. Where is the compassion and common decency for these unemployed??

  • Mojojojo

    “may be 48 out of 50 months” hahahahaha! Well you’re almost apologizing for your lie, bågger. That’s a lot better than your båggery companions can say. But it was a hell of a lot more than 1 out of 50 you lied about hahahhahahaaha.

    Mojo out.

    • lookout1

      Your Chart still says obamanomics sucks..
      btw 48 out of 50 inst much different than 49 out of 50 ..

      Fact is more people have quit looking for work during his “recovery” than the actual recession

      Fact is more wages have been lost duriing his recovery than the recession

      Fact is 70%+ of all jobs ‘created or saved’ have been part time jobs..

      Fact is, with those numbers … its the wort recovery in 70+ years

      Fact is Obamanomics… is an Obamanation .. and Obama makes carter look like Reagan

  • Raphael Semmes

    Given the liberals’ ”Blueprint” campaign to smear the NC legislature, which the NCGOP was incompetent in trying to counter, it was political malpractice to run a state legislator for US Senate, yet thanks to the lamebrains like Rove and the NRSC, that is exactly what we are stuck with. Even worse, he is an opportunist who has never been thought well of by the party base, which is not enthusiastic at all about Tillis. With a better candidate, we could have beaten Hagan, but with Tillis that looks unlikely. That should have gotten a clue when the pre-primary polls consistently showed Tillis as one of the weakest general election candidates in the GOP primary field.

  • John Kenner

    Since equal justice implies that laws apply equally to all, and the range of skills and talents varies between each of us, the same rules will naturally lead to a wide range of unequal results.

  • Layla

    Interesting comments here. I think the gist of it is the American people are more closely watching Congress and Washington in general than ever before and they are not happy with what they see.

    Healthcare laws being forced upon us, without the promised public hearings. If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor, perhaps the biggest lie of all. We have to pass the bill in order to find out what’s in it….that one needs to go on Pelosi’s headstone. Our borders are secure. The IRS is innocent. I could go on, but I think you get it.

    Americans are particularly mad at one side for causing all this damage to our communities and families, but JUST AS ANGRY at the side sitting back doing nothing about it. That does not translate to a win at election time.

    It has become obvious to us all that you have put the US Chamber and illegals ahead of American families, many who are just as homeless. Our government has become highly offensive to most.

    You have given us no choice but to vote you out, BOTH SIDES.

  • Len Ear

    The More We Know. The far more we don’t.

  • Linus Upanother

    If we examine the contrast between liberty and servitude, for example, we discover that the negative sense of liberty in no way reduces its desirability.

  • Orej Eeenal

    Great thinkers, such as John Locke, David Hume, Adam Smith, Frederic Bastiat, and Alexis de Tocqueville, helped discover and refine the ideas and institutions of liberty and individualism.

  • Bozeman

    Since a free country provides only the opportunities, risks, and uncertainties associated with developing one’s talents, it naturally puts people under pressure that is often disliked.

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