Rating Change: North Carolina Senate
Posted at 11:29 a.m. on May 7
Tillis is the GOP’s nominee in North Carolina. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the GOP nomination outright on Tuesday, setting up a general election match-up against Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the top Senate races in the country. Even though Hagan’s polling numbers have been mediocre at best, we gave her a slight edge in the race because of uncertainty in the Republican primary.
But now that Tillis is the nominee and has avoided a costly July runoff that could have pushed him farther to the right, Hagan does not have a significant advantage in the race.
We are changing our Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up.